The Padres are red hot and knocking on the door in the NL West. These moves might help them catch the Dodgers.
Are the San Diego Padres finally becoming the team they envisioned for 2024? After entering the All-Star break outside the National League playoff hunt, the Padres have now won 11 of their last 14 games, positioning themselves as serious contenders for the NL pennant. This impressive stretch includes series victories against three division leaders and a seven-game winning streak, the longest of the season for San Diego.
While reaching the playoffs is the primary goal, the Padres could also secure their first division title since 2006 if they keep up this momentum. During this time, the Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 6-6 since sweeping the Boston Red Sox in their first series after the break, and their division lead has dwindled to four games, the smallest margin since late April. As of Monday, the Dodgers are 4½ games ahead of the Padres.
Not one to shy away from making bold moves, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was active on MLB trade deadline day. San Diego landed top reliever Tanner Scott and 2022 All-Star Martin Perez to enhance their starting pitching depth, following a prior acquisition of right-handed reliever Jason Adam, who boasts a 2.27 ERA over the past two seasons.
Smart roster adjustments can be crucial for teams competing for playoff spots. The Padres believe they’ve made the right moves and are optimistic about reinforcements from players returning from injury. Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, and Wandy Peralta are all expected back before the postseason starts.
Every roster spot is vital at this stage of the season. The Padres are always looking to improve and are monitoring promising prospects in the minors, who could join the big league team soon.
One such prospect is Mexican outfielder Tirso Ornelas, who has earned his first promotion to the majors. Signed at age 17 in 2017, Ornelas is on the verge of making his MLB debut after a stellar 2024 season in Triple-A, where he has a .319/.388/.536 batting line with 17 home runs, 17 doubles, and 69 RBIs.
He was added to the Padres’ 40-man roster on July 17, indicating their interest in getting him to the big leagues before the end of the regular season. Since that move, he has reached base in 12 of 15 games, hitting five home runs and driving in 12 runs.
Ranked as San Diego’s No. 19 prospect, Ornelas could be the next to make the jump to the majors. With Jackson Merrill solidifying the center and a healthy Tatis in right field, the Padres are still searching for a long-term left fielder. Jurickson Profar occupies that spot this season and recently made his first All-Star appearance, but at 31, he will be a free agent soon, likely drawing multi-year offers from other teams.
This opens the door for Ornelas to gain major league experience in the coming weeks. He has performed well in the minors and has shown defensive improvements, committing only two errors in the outfield. Overall, he looks ready for the big leagues and should receive his promotion this year.
Tom Cosgrove gets another shot
Last season, Tom Cosgrove was among the top left-handed relievers in baseball, finishing his rookie year with a 1.75 ERA over 54 games, including seven holds and one save. He was anticipated to play a significant role in the Padres’ bullpen for 2024, but after being optioned in April, he has made only three appearances in the majors since then.
This year, Cosgrove has struggled against hitters, posting an 11.66 ERA in 14 2/3 innings. His performance in the minors hasn’t been much better, with a 6.86 ERA across 23 games.
However, since returning from nearly a month on the sidelines, Cosgrove has improved significantly, recording a 2.69 ERA in seven appearances. During this stretch, he has struck out nine batters while walking just three, striking out multiple hitters in four outings, with both earned runs he allowed coming from solo home runs.
Cosgrove is a lefty with a sweeper-heavy approach, complemented by a sinking fastball. Although the Padres already have three left-handed pitchers in their bullpen and are awaiting Wandy Peralta’s return, they might benefit from bringing Cosgrove back into the fold.
Swapping him for fellow lefty Adrian Morejon could be a potential move for the Padres in the coming weeks. While Morejon has had a solid season, his historical performance raises concerns, particularly his 6.23 ERA in September and October over 14 games, where hitters have an .879 OPS against him. Additionally, he has a 6.35 ERA for second halves in his MLB career and has allowed four runs over his last five appearances, which could indicate further struggles ahead.
Tanner Scott and Yuki Matsui are the primary left-handed options in the bullpen for San Diego. If Tom Cosgrove gets another chance in the majors, his return to form from 2023 would greatly benefit the Padres.
Padres’ Outlook for the Final Two Months of the Season
With eight weeks remaining in the regular season, expect more excitement in Major League Baseball, and the Padres are likely to be in the thick of it as they compete for a playoff spot and possibly a division title.
The upcoming weeks present a prime opportunity for San Diego to make a significant move in the standings, as their next four series are against teams currently outside of playoff contention. In contrast, the Dodgers won’t face a team with a sub-.500 record until a brief two-game series against the Los Angeles Angels starting on September 3.
The Padres have performed well in the second half of the last two seasons, achieving a winning record in each. In 2023, they won 20 of their last 27 games but just missed the postseason.
San Diego has the talent to mount a successful push. The front office seems aware of this, having made several additions to help offset any potential injuries as the season wraps up. The strengthened pitching staff, along with Joe Musgrove’s pending return, offers the rotation some much-needed flexibility. The team is already making adjustments, including skipping Michael King’s turn in the rotation after he sustained a leg injury from a comebacker in his last start. His career-high innings pitched may have also influenced this decision.
With 49 games left in the regular season, the Padres likely need to win at least 30 to secure a playoff spot. When healthy and in a good rhythm, few ballparks match the atmosphere of San Diego’s Petco Park. The Padres posted a 3-1 record in four home playoff games during their 2022 NLCS run, and bringing postseason baseball back to San Diego is a top priority for the team.
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