Big Ten championship scenarios: How Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana can face Oregon

Big Ten Championship Scenarios: Path for Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana to Face Oregon

Penn State managed to secure a win over Minnesota, keeping its College Football Playoff hopes alive. Ohio State’s victory over Indiana also boosted Penn State’s chances of reaching the Big Ten title game.

As the season heads into its final week, the race for the Big Ten Championship is clear. Oregon, still unbeaten, has already locked in a spot. Meanwhile, Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana — each with one loss — are all still in contention to face the Ducks in the Dec. 7 title game in Indianapolis.

Here’s what each team must do to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship:

• Ohio State: Must win against Michigan OR hope for losses from Penn State and Indiana.
• Penn State: Needs to beat Maryland AND have Ohio State lose.
• Indiana: Must defeat Purdue AND hope for losses from both Penn State and Ohio State.

The most likely scenario sees Ohio State beating Michigan and advancing to a rematch with Oregon for the title. After dominating Indiana 23-0, the Buckeyes are heavy favorites against a struggling Michigan team.

However, if Ohio State falls to Michigan for a fourth straight year, Penn State could secure a spot by beating Maryland. This is possible because Penn State holds the tiebreaker over Indiana.

The tiebreaker between Penn State and Indiana comes down to the fourth criterion: best cumulative opponent conference winning percentage. To simplify, let’s exclude the teams both schools have faced, as they cancel each other out. Penn State’s unique opponents include Illinois, Wisconsin, USC, and Minnesota, while Indiana’s are Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern.

Currently, the records are:

• Penn State’s unique opponents: 16-17 (.484)
• Indiana’s unique opponents: 12-20 (.375)

Even if the worst-case scenario unfolds — where Penn State’s opponents lose and Indiana’s win — Penn State would still hold the edge, with a record of 17-19 compared to Indiana’s 16-20.

In summary, Penn State’s path is straightforward: root for Michigan to upset Ohio State, and with a win over Maryland, James Franklin’s team will earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship and secure a potential first-round College Football Playoff bye.