The Big 12 is showcasing a surprising level of parity, perhaps even too much.
As Rivalry Week approaches, nine teams remain in contention for the Big 12 championship game. Four teams currently have two conference losses: No. 16 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2), No. 18 Iowa State (9-2, 6-2), No. 19 BYU (9-2, 6-2), and No. 25 Colorado (8-3, 6-2).
If at least two of these teams win this weekend, the championship picture will remain straightforward. However, if three of them lose, it will create an opportunity for the five teams with three losses: No. 24 Kansas State (8-3, 5-3), Baylor (7-4, 5-3), TCU (7-4, 5-3), Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3), and West Virginia (6-5, 5-3).
Who will qualify for the Big 12 championship game? Let’s examine the possibilities:
Big 12 Championship Scenarios for 2024
Nine teams are still vying for a spot, but the four teams with two conference losses have the strongest chances of reaching the College Football Playoff. You can find an overview of the tie-breaker scenarios for the Big 12 here. Let’s begin by focusing on the teams with the clearest path to the championship. Here’s a look at their opponents this weekend:
Game Schedule
- Oklahoma State at No. 25 Colorado (Friday) at 12 p.m. on ABC
- No. 16 Arizona State at Arizona at 3:30 p.m. on Fox
- Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State at 7:30 p.m. on Fox
- Houston at No. 19 BYU at 10:15 p.m. on ESPN
Colorado and BYU are favored to win by double digits. Iowa State is hosting “Farmageddon,” while Arizona State is an 8.5-point favorite in the Territorial Cup against Arizona.
Championship Scenarios
Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
Arizona State secures a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win over Arizona AND losses from two of Iowa State, BYU, or Colorado, or through a four-way tie at 7-2 involving Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado.
If Arizona State, BYU, and Iowa State win AND Colorado loses, Arizona State and Iowa State will face off in the championship game.
If all four teams (Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State) lose, Arizona State will compete against BYU for the title.
A complex scenario could eliminate Arizona State: if Arizona State, Colorado, and Iowa State win, BYU loses, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor defeats Kansas State, and Cincinnati beats TCU, the championship match will be Colorado vs. Iowa State. If Texas Tech wins in this scenario, then it would be Arizona State against Iowa State.
Iowa State (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
Iowa State clinches a championship berth with a victory over Kansas State AND losses by two of Arizona State, BYU, and Colorado, or through a four-way tie at 7-2 (where Iowa State holds a cumulative winning percentage advantage over BYU).
If Iowa State, Arizona State, and BYU win AND Colorado loses, the championship game will feature Arizona State and Iowa State.
If Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado win AND Arizona State loses, then Iowa State and BYU will meet in the final.
Several scenarios could work against Arizona State while benefiting Iowa State: if Arizona State, Colorado, and Iowa State win, BYU loses, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor triumphs over Kansas State, and Cincinnati wins against TCU, the championship would pit Colorado against Iowa State. If Texas Tech wins in this situation, the championship would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
BYU (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
BYU advances to the championship with a win over Houston AND losses by two of Arizona State, Colorado, or Iowa State.
If BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State win AND Arizona State loses, then BYU and Iowa State will face each other in the championship.
If BYU, Arizona State, and Colorado win AND Iowa State loses, the championship matchup will be BYU vs. Arizona State.
Colorado (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
Colorado must win against Oklahoma State AND hope for losses from two of Arizona State, BYU, and Iowa State. Colorado’s earlier losses to Kansas State and Kansas negatively impact their standing in the tiebreaker based on winning percentage against common conference opponents.
If Arizona State, Colorado, and Iowa State win AND BYU loses, along with Texas Tech defeating West Virginia, Baylor beating Kansas State, and Cincinnati overcoming TCU, the championship game will feature Colorado against Iowa State.
What happens if three teams lose out of Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State?
Let’s explore the four scenarios where all three teams lose, using MRed’s Big 12 calculator for guidance.
- If Arizona State wins AND Colorado, Iowa State, and BYU lose, the most likely matchup for the Big 12 championship would be Arizona State against either Kansas State or Baylor, depending on the outcomes of other games involving TCU-Cincinnati, Kansas-Baylor, Utah-UCF, and West Virginia-Texas Tech.
- If Iowa State wins AND Arizona State, BYU, and Colorado lose, the likely championship game would feature Iowa State against either Baylor, Texas Tech, or West Virginia, contingent on the results of TCU-Cincinnati and Utah-UCF.
- If BYU wins AND Arizona State, Colorado, and Iowa State lose, then the anticipated championship game would be BYU facing either Kansas State or Baylor, based on the outcomes of the other Big 12 matchups such as TCU-Cincinnati, Kansas-Baylor, Utah-UCF, and West Virginia-Texas Tech.
- If Colorado wins AND Arizona State, Iowa State, and BYU lose, the expected Big 12 championship game would be Colorado versus either Kansas State or Baylor, influenced by results from TCU-Cincinnati, Kansas-Baylor, Utah-UCF, and West Virginia-Texas Tech.
Now, what if Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State all lose? This would create various combinations among the three-loss teams. For the sake of this analysis, let’s assume those four teams lose and that the other four favorites on Saturday—Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, and UCF—win.
In that scenario, the Big 12 championship game would feature Kansas State against Texas Tech, both competing as three-loss teams.
Big 12 Common Opponents
Here are the results for Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State that will be used to calculate common-opponent winning percentage, which is the second tiebreaker in the Big 12.
| TEAM | BYU | COLO. | ISU | ASU |
| Arizona | W 41-19 | W 34-7 | – | Nov. 30 |
| Arizona State | L 28-23 | – | – | L 24-14 |
| Baylor | W 34-28 | W 38-31 | W 43-21 | – |
| BYU | – | – | – | W 28-23 |
| UCF | W 37-24 | W 48-21 | W 38-35 | W 35-31 |
| Cincinnati | – | W 34-23 | W 34-17 | – |
| Colorado | – | – | – | – |
| Houston | Nov. 30 | – | W 20-0 | – |
| Iowa State | – | – | – | – |
| Kansas | L 17-13 | L 37-21 | L 45-36 | W 35-31 |
| Kansas State | W 38-9 | L 31-28 | Nov. 30 | W 24-14 |
| Oklahoma State | W 38-35 | Nov. 29 | – | W 42-21 |
| TCU | – | – | – | – |
| Texas Tech | – | W 41-27 | L 23-22 | L 30-22 |
| Utah | W 22-21 | W 49-24 | W 31-28 | W 27-19 |
| West Virginia | – | – | W 28-16 | – |
| RECORD | 6-2 | 6-2 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
Who will play in the Big 12 championship game?
According to Sporting News’ Week 14 predictions, Arizona State is expected to defeat Arizona 38-23, while Iowa State is projected to beat Kansas State 33-28. Additionally, Colorado is predicted to win against Oklahoma State 38-24, and BYU is forecasted to defeat Houston 33-14.
This scenario, which aligns with the favorites, would lead to a four-way tie at the top, placing Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game.
The championship game is scheduled for December 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and will be broadcast on ABC.
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