The free agent market for third baseman Alex Bregman is beginning to take shape, with six teams mentioned as potential suitors for the 2024 American League Gold Glove Award winner. In addition to the energetic Detroit Tigers, the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, and Toronto Blue Jays have shown interest in Bregman. Many consider him to be the second-best position player available in free agency this offseason, trailing only outfielder Juan Soto, both of whom are represented by agent Scott Boras. Bregman’s skill and extensive playoff experience make him an attractive option for a championship-caliber team looking to turn past disappointments into success in October. He aims to take advantage of the anticipated high spending driven by Soto’s impact and is seeking a contract with an average annual value of at least $ 30 million.
Is Alex Bregman Worth $ 300 Million?
The MLB offseason is filled with speculation, often blurring the lines between reality and exaggeration due to social media. Rumors have surfaced that Bregman is targeting a free agent contract exceeding 300million,similartothirdbasemanMannyMachado′sdeal.Machadooriginallysigneda10−year, 300 million contract with the San Diego Padres in February 2019, following his age-25 season, and later received an 11-year, $ 350 million extension in February 2023, just before turning 30.
Machado’s contract extension includes a 45millionsigningbonus,withanaverageannualvalueof 31,818,182 for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, extending through his age-40 season. He is one of only 35 players in MLB history to achieve a wins above replacement (WAR) of 50 or better before turning 30, calculated using Baseball-Reference. The only other active players on this list, alongside Machado (51.9), are Mike Trout (76.1) of the Los Angeles Angels and Mookie Betts (56.5) of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bregman, by comparison, has a career WAR of 39.6 through his age-30 season.
While Bregman is an outstanding player capable of making significant contributions, securing a contract exceeding 300millionmaybechallenginggiventhecurrentmarketforthirdbasemenwhoaren′tMachado.Bregmanjustcompletedafive−year, 100 million extension with the Astros, averaging 20millionannuallyaccordingtoCot’sBaseballContracts.SometeamsaresokeenonBregmanthattheyareconsideringmovingtheircurrentthirdbasementodifferentpositions.Forexample,AlecBohm,a2024NationalLeagueAll−Star,hastwoyearsofarbitrationeligibilityremaining,makinghimattractivetoteamslookingfortradesinvolvingthePhillies.TheRedSoxarecontemplatingshiftingRafaelDeverstofirstbaseaftersigninghimtoa10−year, 313.5 million contract extension in January 2023, prior to his age-26 season.
Evaluating Alex Bregman’s Value
Assessing Bregman’s worth is complex, especially as several top third basemen have inked various contract extensions at different stages of their careers according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. José Ramírez has significantly outperformed his market value with a seven-year, 141millionextensionfromtheClevelandGuardiansinApril2022,priortoturning29.Additionally,MattChapmansignedasix−year, 151 million extension with the San Francisco Giants in September 2024, near the end of his age-31 season, while Austin Riley secured a 10-year, $ 212 million extension with the Atlanta Braves in August 2022, during his age-25 season.
Another intriguing aspect regarding third basemen is the possibility of acquiring Nolan Arenado via trade from the St. Louis Cardinals, as well as the potential for free agent shortstop Willy Adames to transition to third base under certain conditions. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Arenado is set to earn 74millionoverthenextthreeyears,withtheColoradoRockiescovering 10 million as part of the deal that brought the 10-time National League Gold Glove Award winner to St. Louis in February 2021. In 2025, Arenado will be 34 years old, and there has been a noticeable decline in his offensive performance.
The market for Alex Bregman is likely to heat up once there’s clarity on Juan Soto’s free agency. If teams like the Red Sox and Yankees do not succeed in acquiring Soto, they are expected to turn their attention to Bregman, potentially sparking a bidding war between these fierce rivals, which would benefit Bregman in free agency. As the 2025 season begins, Bregman will be a 31-year-old third baseman who is projected to command an average annual salary of around 30million.Whileaseven−yeardealmaybethemaximumcomfortlevelforteamspursuinghim,agentScottBoraswilllikelytakeadvantageofthedisappointmentteamsfeelafterlosingoutonSoto.Itwouldn’tbesurprisingforBorastopromotetheideaofpairingBregmanwithshortstopTreaTurnerinPhiladelphiaifthePhilliescantradeAlecBohmandmakeanoffersimilartoTurner’s11−year, 300 million contract.
Third Base Defensive Comparison – Alex Bregman
A chart compares free agent Alex Bregman to eight third basemen who have played at least 4,000 innings.
Alex Bregman and the Sign-Stealing Scandal
Bregman is five years removed from his runner-up finish in the 2019 American League MVP voting, where he lost to Mike Trout and led Major League Baseball with an 8.9 WAR according to Baseball-Reference. A two-time world champion with the Astros, his reputation has been marred by his involvement in the sign-stealing scandal. Despite his attempts to apologize sincerely in the years since the incident, players from the Astros were granted immunity during MLB’s investigation, which garnered significant criticism. Bregman and his former teammates from the 2017 Astros are often met with boos from fans across North America, particularly in New York.
In recent years, several third basemen have successfully secured long-term contracts worth at least 200million,withaverageannualvaluesaround 30 million. It’s reasonable to expect that Alex Bregman could achieve these financial goals this offseason, although he may not match Manny Machado’s status. Bregman’s appeal as a free agent goes beyond his low strikeout rate, veteran experience, and Gold Glove defense. He stands to gain significantly from the letdown experienced by large-market teams that fail to sign Juan Soto. In addition to the urgency to land a top-tier free agent, teams might overpay, as Boras will position Bregman as an excellent alternative to Soto.
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