Analysis: Impact of Nolan Arenado’s Potential Move to First Base for the Seattle Mariners
Nolan Arenado, a multi-time Platinum Glove Award winner, is reportedly open to shifting to first base, which could make him a more attractive trade target for the Seattle Mariners.
As the Mariners enter December, they have made only one significant offseason move so far—acquiring Austin Shenton from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for cash considerations on Nov. 19. Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander have indicated that the infield is the team’s top area of focus for improvement, and with only $16 million in available funds, a trade may be necessary.
The MLB Winter Meetings from Dec. 9-12 in Dallas are expected to spark discussions involving many potential trades. One player likely to be moved is Arenado, the St. Louis Cardinals’ third baseman, who has expressed a desire to leave the rebuilding Cardinals and join a contender. The 33-year-old is still an effective hitter, batting .272 with 16 home runs and 71 RBIs in 2024.
According to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo on Nov. 26, Arenado is willing to transition to first base, which could make him a more viable option for the Mariners. Arenado is under contract for $21 million in 2025, $16 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027, per Spotrac. His salary and age may complicate a potential trade, especially since he would be the highest-paid position player on Seattle’s roster in 2025, exceeding the team’s available budget for next season.
A potential deal might require the Mariners to trade several prospects and a high-salary player, such as Mitch Haniger ($17.5 million), Luis Castillo ($24.15 million), or Mitch Garver ($12.5 million). However, his declining salary in the coming years, along with his willingness to move to first base, could make Arenado a valuable asset for the Mariners.
Defensively, Arenado remains elite, earning his 10th Gold Glove nomination in 2024, with 10 outs above average, placing him in the 95th percentile league-wide. He could continue playing third base in 2025 before shifting to a platoon role at first base alongside Luke Raley in 2026 and 2027, which would give Seattle coverage at both positions. This could also open up third base for top prospects like Colt Emerson, Ben Williamson, or Michael Arroyo when they are ready for the majors.
In terms of roster flexibility, Seattle could still afford players like Carlos Santana or Justin Turner if they include a high-salary player in the trade. While signing two players over 33 might not be ideal, a combination of Arenado, Raley, and either Turner or Santana could be effective.
Arenado’s veteran presence could also fulfill a need for Seattle, providing leadership and mentorship for younger players like Cole Young and Emerson. However, the success of this trade would depend on the Cardinals’ asking price. If too many top prospects are required or if Seattle cannot offload another large contract, the trade may fall through.
If everything aligns, Arenado could offer significant benefits to the Mariners. If Seattle can finalize a favorable deal, it would be hard to justify passing up the opportunity to acquire him.
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