It’s been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado exercised his no-trade clause to block a deal that would have sent him from the Cardinals to the Astros. The next steps in the Cardinals’ efforts to trade Arenado are unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report minimal progress has been made since the Astros deal fell apart.
The lack of movement isn’t surprising, given the numerous complexities surrounding any potential trade. The Rockies are covering 10millionofthe 74 million remaining on Arenado’s contract, and some deferred payments reportedly make his remaining salary equivalent to $ 60 million in current dollars. This large sum is a significant concern for the Cardinals, who are eager to reduce their payroll, resulting in a limited number of teams with both the financial flexibility and need for a third baseman.
Arenado has expressed a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe mentioned during the Winter Meetings. He holds significant leverage in these negotiations because of his no-trade protection. Past reports have indicated that he would consider trades to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, although this list seems to be subject to change.
Interestingly, Houston was initially on that list, but their trade of Kyle Tucker just days before the proposed Arenado deal caused him to hesitate about moving there, leading him to invoke his no-trade clause. However, Sammon and Woo note that Arenado might be open to revisiting a deal with the Astros as his market situation evolves (specifically, following Alex Bregman’s signing).
Ultimately, the Astros moved away from pursuing Arenado and Bregman, opting to sign Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, which shifted Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal) to third base. Even though Bregman’s trade market remains active, involving teams like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets, reports about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman have been inconsistent, with the main obstacle for the Yankees being their reluctance to assume the bulk of Arenado’s salary.
The connection between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s trade preferences suggests that renewed interest in Arenado might only come after Bregman signs. If a trade for Arenado doesn’t materialize, the Cardinals may instead retain him for the upcoming season and consider trades later, possibly around the deadline, particularly if Arenado’s performance improves, easing concerns about his average offensive numbers from the past two seasons.
However, keeping Arenado, even temporarily, doesn’t satisfy the Cardinals’ goal of reducing payroll. Thus, Sammon and Woo indicate the team could prioritize trading a starting pitcher to save money. Sonny Gray has indicated he won’t waive his no-trade clause, and Andre Pallante remains arbitration-eligible, making Miles Mikolas (owed 16millionin2025),StevenMatz( 12.5 million), and Erick Fedde ( $ 7.5 million) the most likely candidates for trade. St. Louis may consider moving Mikolas or Matz regardless of an Arenado trade, but they’d prefer to retain Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they decide to trade him at all.
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