The three-game losing streak following one of the best non-conference results in years was a major disappointment for the fans, coaches, and players of the Dayton basketball program. However, a lineup change and a bold move against the visiting Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, paired with a strong performance on the road against one of the A-10’s hottest teams, Duquesne, have brought the Dayton Flyers back to a .500 record in the conference, reminiscent of their November form.
The lineup change involved inserting 7-foot-1 freshman Amael Le’Tang at center, replacing Zed Key. While it’s worth noting that Key is dealing with a minor injury, this adjustment has coincided with his absence and has helped the Flyers secure two recent victories. Le’Tang, who initially impressed fans and analysts with his significant contributions both offensively and defensively earlier in the season, has continued to shine.
In his last two games as a starter, Le’Tang has accumulated 27 points (shooting 9-for-12 on two-pointers and 1-for-3 on three-pointers in the game against Duquesne), along with 3 assists and 9 rebounds. Impressively, he has only committed one personal foul in each game, a notable achievement for a big man in today’s game. His offensive ratings were 107 against Duquesne and an impressive 137 against Loyola-Chicago. It’s evident that Le’Tang’s skill and development have been on the rise as the season progresses.
The change in the starting lineup likely reflects the impact that Le’Tang has on the defensive side compared to other players on the team. One effective way to gauge a player’s true influence on a game is by examining their box plus/minus, along with their offensive and defensive box plus/minus stats. For those who may not be familiar with this metric, B +/- evaluates a player’s overall contribution while they’re on the court per 100 possessions, tracking the net scoring changes that occur during their time in the game. Below are the Dayton offensive, defensive, and overall box plus/minus statistics following the Duquesne game on January 21.
As shown, Le’Tang is almost as effective offensively as Zed Key, but he makes a greater defensive contribution, resulting in a +0.7 overall BPM. As I mentioned in a previous article following the loss to George Washington, the best strategy for Dayton is to prioritize defense, generating offense from defensive pressure and turnovers. The new starting lineup of Smith, Cheek, Bennett, Santos, and Le’Tang features three players with positive DBPM. Smith is slightly negative, while Santos struggles significantly defensively.
In addition to Le’Tang’s promotion to the starting lineup, the return of Enoch Cheeks has been crucial in Dayton’s two recent victories. Cheeks has been exceptional, leading the Flyers in scoring with 26 points against Loyola and 23 against Duquesne. Notably, Dayton is 7-0 in games where Cheeks is their leading scorer, which includes wins over Connecticut and Northwestern. According to Box Plus/Minus, Cheeks stands out as Dayton’s top offensive and defensive asset, leading the team in both metrics. It’s clear that when the game plan focuses more on Cheeks, the Flyers increase their chances of winning.
Personally, I would like to see more players from the roster receive playing time. However, for this to happen, Dayton needs to get healthy, as Zed Key and Posh Alexander are dealing with injuries, with Alexander missing the last three games. I suggest Posh take Santos’s spot in the starting lineup, utilizing Santos as an effective sixth man, akin to Koby Brea’s role last season. Posh ranks as the second-best defender on the Flyers and brings a solid offensive option, especially from two-point range, shooting 51.4% from two this season, primarily by driving to the basket. Anthony Grant’s offense is focused on getting to the rim and finding high-quality two-point shots (the Flyers rank 54th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 5th in the A10). As I mentioned earlier, Dayton excels when their focus is on defense first and offense second—a perfect fit for Posh if they maintain this mentality.
Having Santos come off the bench as the primary three-point shooter against opposing bench players could enhance both his offensive and defensive efficiency. This situation is reminiscent of Koby Brea’s role last season, who had a defensive box plus/minus of 1.2, better than Santos’s, but overall contributed positively by providing a three-point specialist off the bench. Again, this plan hinges on Posh’s health.
Looking ahead, Dayton has an opportunity to re-enter the NCAA tournament at-large conversation, with significant quad 2 matchups against St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis on the horizon. However, the Flyers cannot afford to lose any more quad 3 or 4 games; doing so would eliminate their chances of an at-large berth, and they must win the Atlantic 10 tournament to secure the automatic bid. With the coaching staff making adjustments in recent games and the rise of Enoch Cheeks and Amael Le’Tang, Dayton may be hitting its stride at the perfect moment. Anyone familiar with college basketball understands that a team can achieve anything if it gets on a winning streak at the right time.
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