The Chicago Cubs may have secured a better deal than expected. With the season approaching in just over a month, the Cubs have apparently solidified their third base situation after missing out on their ideal target, Alex Bregman.
Instead, they signed two-time All-Star and World Series champion Justin Turner from the Los Angeles Dodgers. While Bregman went for a hefty $40 million average annual value (AAV) with the Boston Red Sox, Turner joined the Cubs for just $6 million, which feels like a significant bargain in comparison.
Let’s be clear: Turner has never been considered a better player than Bregman. Both are champions and two-time All-Stars, but the direct comparisons stop there.
However, the Cubs’ decision to sign Turner for only $6 million on a one-year deal, instead of committing to a hefty three-year, $40 million deal with Bregman, may actually be a smarter move. In the short term, Turner’s deal gives the Cubs flexibility and leaves room for prospect Matt Shaw to step in when ready, instead of locking in Bregman as the long-term third baseman.
Looking at their recent performance, the two players’ offensive numbers over the last two years are closer than expected.
Bregman struggled in 2024, with a career-low .768 OPS, slashing .260/.315/.453. That down year likely impacted his free agency negotiations. In 2023, Bregman had a slightly better .262/.363/.441 line with 25 home runs and 98 RBIs.
Turner, despite being 39 years old, posted a respectable .259/.354/.383 line in 2024 with the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, which was quite similar to Bregman’s numbers, but at a fraction of the cost. In 2023, Turner’s numbers were nearly identical to Bregman’s, with a .276/.345/.455 line, 23 home runs, and 96 RBIs.
While Bregman is clearly the superior defender, Turner has consistently been better at getting on base and, of course, is far more affordable.
At first glance, it seems surprising that the Cubs got a better deal after losing out on one of the top third basemen in baseball and replacing him with a player entering his 40s. However, when you look at the numbers more closely, the Cubs’ choice doesn’t seem as far-fetched.
Only time will tell if the Cubs made the right decision in opting for Turner over meeting Bregman’s huge demands.
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