Will the Avalanche re-sign Brock Nelson?
After 12 games with the Avalanche, Brock Nelson’s performance as a second-line center has been decent, but his play on the ice has been inconsistent. He has turned over the puck more than expected and has not been shooting as much—I anticipated more than 17 shots in that span from a player who has netted over 30 goals in each of the last three seasons.
“I think he has more to offer us,” said Jared Bednar on Tuesday. “His defensive metrics are looking strong. … However, I believe his offensive growth is still to come. We haven’t fully seen what he can do offensively yet, just glimpses.”
That seems accurate. With only seven games remaining before the playoffs, the Avalanche are hopeful he can elevate his game.
Regarding his potential re-signing, that’s a more challenging question. Nelson will be 34 at the beginning of next season and reportedly rejected a three-year, $ 22.5 million extension from the Islanders before being traded. While three years isn’t a long commitment in the NHL, it’s a significant amount to invest in a player whose production has dipped this season.
What alternatives do the Avalanche have? With Casey Mittelstadt gone and their future second-line center Calum Ritchie traded for Nelson, they don’t have many assets left to pursue another trade if he leaves in free agency. Unless Sam Bennett is willing to come to Colorado for a favorable deal this summer, they may have to consider paying Nelson, assuming he wants to stay. There are rumors he may prefer to play in his home state of Minnesota, but that’s a common narrative whenever a Minnesota player approaches free agency, and it doesn’t always pan out.
Why doesn’t Bednar receive more recognition for the Jack Adams award?
The Jack Adams award, which is not determined by writers, typically goes to a coach whose team exceeds expectations, often in surprising ways. Take last year’s winner, Rick Tocchet of Vancouver, whose team was not anticipated to make the playoffs but ended up winning their division, benefiting from some good luck.
The PDO statistic, which measures combined shooting and save percentages, averages around 1.00. A significantly lower PDO indicates poor luck over a full season, while a higher one suggests everything went right for that team—a high PDO is not usually sustainable year over year. Vancouver led the NHL in PDO last season at 1.028 but has fallen to .996 this year and is likely missing the playoffs, showing that their roster isn’t strong enough to succeed without favorable circumstances.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d wager that Spencer Carbery from Washington will win the award this season. Nobody expected the Capitals to come out on top in their division, much less the Eastern Conference, but it seems they’re poised to do both. Care to guess who currently leads the NHL in PDO?
There’s a reason coaches like Bednar and Jon Cooper haven’t won the Jack Adams. Their teams are anticipated to perform well, and when they do, they often don’t receive the recognition they deserve. Consistency at this level is crucial. Bednar has managed nearly 50 roster changes this season while keeping the team near the top of the league. Yes, he has some of the best players, but many teams with top talent still underperform every year. His teams do not, which is indicative of a strong coach.
Should I be concerned about the Avalanche’s current situation, or are they just coasting?
It’s only been two games, so there’s no need for concern. They lost 2-1 to St. Louis and 3-2 in overtime to Calgary, but neither was a blowout. The reality is that the team isn’t playing for much at the moment, so a bit of inconsistency over these last seven games wouldn’t be surprising.
That doesn’t worry me, though. They just went on an impressive run to reach this point, demonstrating they know how to win. It’s also noteworthy that they played two of their weaker games recently but still competed against teams desperate for a playoff spot.
Why the frequent line changes on the top two lines?
Now’s the time to experiment and figure out what works. They know that Martin Necas and Nathan MacKinnon had solid chemistry and are likely looking to see if other combinations could be effective if needed.
Is there anyone on the roster the Avalanche are particularly concerned about due to lack of production?
My main concern is Martin Necas and his struggles to produce at even strength since the 4 Nations break. He’s had only four even-strength points in his last 18 games. His playoff track record in Carolina isn’t great, and I’ve noticed teams trying to physically target him more. As teams gear up for the playoffs, there’s less space to move on the ice, which seems to be affecting his performance.
He’s the one player with a lot to prove in the playoffs for two reasons. First, he hasn’t been productive there historically, and the player he was traded for, Mikko Rantanen, is one of the top playoff point producers ever. Second, if he can find success in the playoffs, it will bode well for him when it comes time to negotiate his next contract, which might happen this summer.
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