USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley joined the program ahead of the 2022 season with high expectations. Though he started strong, USC has yet to make a College Football Playoff appearance and is coming off a 7-6 season. Is Riley under the most pressure among the coaches in the Big Ten?
The 2025 college football season is shaping up to be a pivotal one for USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley. Hired before the 2022 season with sky-high expectations, Riley signed what was then the most lucrative coaching deal in the sport at \$10.1 million annually.
Though his tenure began on a promising note with a 10-3 record in his first year, USC’s performance has declined each season, culminating in a disappointing 7-6 finish in 2024.
CBS Sports recently released its annual coaching hot seat rankings, where nine of its top college football analysts rated coaches on a scale from 0 (completely safe) to 5 (very much in danger). Riley received an average score of 3.33—placing him second among Big Ten coaches most likely on the hot seat, just behind Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell.
With an average hot seat score of 3.33, Lincoln Riley is under significant pressure to deliver results in 2025. A 7-6 record won’t cut it for a USC program aiming for the College Football Playoff—especially in a highly competitive conference.
Although five of those six losses came by just one score, those are the kinds of games USC needs to win. Defeats to Minnesota, Maryland, and a struggling Michigan squad proved costly. Riley’s 4-10 record against ranked opponents during his time at USC is another concerning stat, and unless he can produce a major turnaround, his position will remain under close scrutiny.
Despite the setbacks, there were some bright spots. USC closed out the year with a win over Texas A\&M in the Las Vegas Bowl, providing a much-needed boost after a tough regular season and a wave of player departures through the NCAA Transfer Portal—including four wide receivers. That bowl victory offered a glimpse of promise heading into the 2025 campaign.
Leading up to the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Lincoln Riley made the decision to bench quarterback Miller Moss in favor of Jayden Maiava. Maiava made the most of his opportunity, going 3-1 as the starter, with his only loss coming against eventual national runner-up Notre Dame. While he still has areas to improve—particularly in limiting turnovers—Maiava has positioned himself as the projected starter heading into this season.
USC’s toughest challenges this season are set for October 18 against Notre Dame and November 22 against Oregon. The rivalry with Notre Dame is one of college football’s most storied, and with ongoing debates about the future of the annual matchup, this year’s meeting carries extra significance.
Notre Dame has been a consistent powerhouse, most recently reaching the national championship game. Once again, the Fighting Irish are expected to be a formidable opponent and will serve as a major test for the Trojans.
As for Oregon, the Ducks finished the 2024 regular season as the nation’s top-ranked team. Despite some roster changes, head coach Dan Lanning has them poised for another deep playoff run. Facing them at Autzen Stadium—one of the most hostile environments in college football—only adds to the challenge for USC.
Two matchups stand out as potential turning points for Riley and the Trojans. First up is Illinois—a squad riding high after a surprise run last year and aiming for a playoff berth. Then comes Michigan, the team that handed USC its lone loss in 2024, and like the Trojans, eager to rebound this fall.
Off the field, USC’s stacking talent, boasting the nation’s top 2026 recruiting class, leveraging NIL deals, and adding impact players via the transfer portal. But all that means little unless the Trojans translate it into wins. If on-field progress isn’t evident, Riley’s tenure in L.A. could be in jeopardy.
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