Tennessee football went on the road Saturday and handed Mississippi State its first loss of the season. The Vols needed overtime to do it, rallying from a late regulation deficit to escape with a 41-34 win. The victory sparked an update in national rankings for both UT and the rest of the country.
In the AP and Coaches Polls, Tennessee held steady at No. 15 overall, ranking eighth among SEC programs. But in ESPN’s FPI, which relies on advanced analytics, the Vols slipped four spots to No. 13.
Oregon claimed the top FPI spot after knocking off Penn State on the road, followed by Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, and Indiana in the top five. Rounding out the top 10 are Notre Dame, Georgia, Ole Miss, Miami, and USC.
Just outside the top 10 sit Penn State and Michigan, while Tennessee is trailed in the rankings by Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Missouri.
FPI projects Tennessee with a 99.8% chance of winning at least two more games to reach six victories and secure bowl eligibility. The Vols have just a 3.2% chance to win out and finish the regular season 11-1.
Their odds to claim the SEC title sit at 3.5%, while the likelihood of making the College Football Playoff is 29.3%. Should Tennessee break into the playoff field, FPI gives them a 4.1% chance to advance to the national championship game and a 1.9% chance to win their first title since 1998.
Tennessee now heads into an open week to regroup and recover before the stretch run of SEC play. The Vols return to action on Oct. 11, when they host Arkansas in a flex-window matchup. Kickoff time and TV coverage will be announced Monday. The Razorbacks will be without head coach Sam Pittman, who was dismissed Sunday following a lopsided loss to Notre Dame.
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