Not a surprise-Huge Insight into Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances in Week 13: Are the Bucs In or Out of the Playoff Race?

As the 2024 NFL season enters its second half, teams are increasingly focused on securing a playoff spot.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, after struggling with a four-game losing streak, have regained their footing with back-to-back victories, including a thrilling overtime win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, bringing their record to an even 6-6.

Let’s take a closer look at the Buccaneers’ playoff chances and the various scenarios unfolding as they push for a postseason spot.

Can the Buccaneers Make the Playoffs?

With a 6-6 record heading into Week 14, the Buccaneers now have a 63.1% chance of making the playoffs. However, their path to a top playoff seed is a long shot, with less than a 0.1% chance of securing the first seed, and a slim 0.3% chance of clinching the second seed. The Bucs have a 15.3% chance to earn the third seed, and a more promising 43.2% chance to claim the fourth seed. Their odds for the fifth seed are practically nonexistent at under 0.1%, while they have a 0.4% chance at the sixth seed and a 3.9% chance at the seventh seed.

Can the Buccaneers Win the NFC South?

The NFC South division is tight heading into Week 14. The Buccaneers have a 58.8% chance of winning the division, putting them in a favorable position despite their competition. The Atlanta Falcons, also at 6-6, have a 37.9% chance of winning the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints (4-8) and Carolina Panthers (3-9) are much further behind, with only a slim chance of making a playoff push, at 3.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

NFC South Standings:

Atlanta Falcons: 6-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6
New Orleans Saints: 4-8
Carolina Panthers: 3-9

NFC Playoff Picture After Week 13:

1. Detroit Lions (11-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)

In The Hunt:

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
1. Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
1. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
1. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
1. Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
1. New Orleans Saints (4-8)
1. Chicago Bears (4-8)
1. Carolina Panthers (3-9)

Eliminated:

1. New York Giants (2-10)

Buccaneers’ Super Bowl Chances

While the road to a Super Bowl appearance remains a long shot, the Buccaneers still have a chance. The PFN Playoff Predictor gives Tampa Bay a 2.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl, a reflection of their current position and performance.

Buccaneers’ Remaining Schedule:

Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints

PFN Prediction for the Buccaneers vs. Panthers Matchup

The NFC South race is becoming more intriguing after the Buccaneers’ recent win and the Falcons’ consecutive losses. Tampa Bay benefits from the easiest remaining schedule in the division, positioning them as a serious contender to steal the NFC South crown, despite losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with Atlanta.

In terms of matchups, the Buccaneers’ offense is expected to dominate the Panthers’ defense, which ranks dead last in several key metrics. PFN’s Power Rankings+ rate Tampa Bay’s offense as the third best in the league, while Carolina’s defense is ranked 32nd. The Panthers have struggled defensively all season, and Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield should have a field day, especially with a clean pocket, given Carolina’s weak pass rush (last in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate). Mayfield has excelled in such situations, throwing a league-leading 23 touchdowns and ranking sixth in passer rating when protected.

On the flip side, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has shown improvement since his early-season benching. Since returning as a starter in Week 8, Young has been about average, with a modest -0.02 EPA per play. However, his play under pressure will be key in this matchup. Young has shown he can perform decently when blitzed, averaging 0.12 EPA per play in such situations since Week 8. The Buccaneers’ defense, led by Todd Bowles, blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league, so how Young handles this pressure will be crucial.

While the Panthers have become a more competitive team thanks to Young’s growth, they are still likely to struggle against Tampa Bay’s potent offense. The Buccaneers should be able to score enough to prevent any potential upset, making this an uphill battle for Carolina.