Evan Miyakawa’s Projections Place Illinois Basketball Higher Than Expert Expectations
As preseason college basketball projections start to surface, there’s a common thread among the experts: St. John’s is loaded with talent, BYU is a rising force, and Purdue is the Big Ten favorite (and possibly the national favorite). However, opinions on Illinois vary.
For example, USA Today ranked Illinois at No. 23 as of July, ESPN had them at No. 16 in early August, and Sports Illustrated placed them at No. 15 back in May. In short, most experts view Illinois as a solid top-25 team, but not a strong contender just yet. The general consensus is that the Illini still have a lot to prove.
However, Evan Miyakawa, the creator of the college basketball metrics model at EvanMiya.com, isn’t quite so cautious. According to Miyakawa’s preseason projections, Illinois is ranked No. 9 in the nation.
To explain his methodology, Miyakawa’s site outlines how the model evaluates a team’s strength: it calculates both offensive and defensive ratings that reflect efficiency, while factoring in elements like game pace and opponent strength. The model doesn’t just rely on basic stats; it uses contextual variables to predict outcomes in hypothetical matchups between teams.
Based on Miyakawa’s analysis, Illinois is expected to be competitive with nearly every team in the country, with only Purdue and Michigan predicted to best them in a theoretical head-to-head. While No. 9 might not sound earth-shattering, it’s a significant improvement over last season’s ranking and offers a glimpse into the Illini’s potential.
Of course, projections like these don’t account for unpredictable factors like injuries, player development, or sheer luck. The experts may be more cautious about Illinois due to the team’s mix of returning players and newcomers, including international prospects. But Miyakawa’s model suggests the Illini could be a sleeper team with serious championship aspirations in 2025-26.
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