The No. 1 team in the country didn’t receive in favors from the College Football Playoff committee.
This season, the Oregon Ducks have proven to be the top team in college football, boasting an impressive 9-0 record and holding the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings since Week 10.
In a year where few teams achieved perfection and most contenders experienced at least one loss, the Ducks remained flawless. So, what challenges could this year’s Oregon football team face? They transitioned into a tougher and deeper Big Ten conference, where they essentially dominated throughout the season.
Moreover, Oregon didn’t just breeze through an easy schedule; they have defeated four ranked teams, including two in the top 10: No. 4 Penn State, whom they triumphed over in the Big Ten Championship, and No. 9 Boise State, the Mountain West champions who also secured a first-round playoff bye alongside Oregon. According to ESPN, Oregon has the No. 34 overall strength of schedule.
Now, all that remains for Oregon is to await their opponent for the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, which will be either No. 8 seed Ohio State or No. 9 seed Tennessee. These two teams will face off on Dec. 21 in one of the inaugural CFP first-round home games, taking place at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.
Despite their strong performance, one potential weakness for this year’s Oregon team could be the contentious playoff seeding they received.
Oregon earns horrible seeding in first-ever 12-team CFP
Despite the excitement and intrigue surrounding the inaugural 12-team playoff, it was inevitable that questions and criticisms would arise. Every iteration of the college football postseason has faced scrutiny, and following the final Selection Day, it became apparent that this version might require some changes.
You might expect that Oregon, having secured the No. 1 ranking with an undefeated season and a Big Ten Championship, would have a clear route to the national title. However, their path looks anything but straightforward. In fact, Oregon arguably faces the toughest challenge among the top four ranked conference champions that received a first-round bye.
Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt expressed his frustration, stating, “What a horrendous job this committee did. The team that was penalized the most was Oregon, and the team that benefitted the most was Penn State… I guess the Ducks should have just given up in the fourth quarter… It’s just atrocious.”
Klatt’s comments reflect a significant imbalance in the playoff structure. As the No. 1 seed, Oregon will compete against the winner of the matchup between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 Tennessee in the Rose Bowl. However, both Ohio State and Tennessee are ranked higher in the CFP standings—Ohio State at No. 6 and Tennessee at No. 7—than any opponent Penn State, the No. 6 seed, would face on their path to the semifinals.
If the Ducks manage to defeat either Ohio State for a second time—a notoriously tough achievement—or Tennessee, they are likely to face either No. 3 Texas or No. 16 Clemson next. Texas recently lost a close rematch against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, while Clemson enters as the reigning ACC champion. Both teams pose distinct challenges for Oregon, and neither matchup should be underestimated.
Should Oregon successfully overcome these obstacles, they would then advance to the national championship game. In the history of college football, a No. 1 seed has never had such a challenging playoff road. Although Dan Lanning has effectively transformed the Ducks since taking over, nothing could have fully prepared his team for this intense journey.
“What an opportunity, right?” Lanning remarked when discussing Oregon’s seeding on ESPN’s CFP Selection Day show, as reported by 247Sports. “In our world, we always talk about red light, green light. We focus on what we can control. Winning a national championship isn’t supposed to be easy. Just ask Coach Saban—it’s not supposed to be easy. So if our path is a bit tougher, kudos to us if we navigate it and succeed.”
While Lanning’s optimism and focus are commendable, the reality of the Ducks’ playoff journey should not be overlooked. Oregon’s path to the title is laden with challenges, requiring not just skill and strategy but also resilience and a touch of luck. For now, the Ducks are focused on preparing for their upcoming Rose Bowl matchup against either Ohio State or Tennessee, both eager to disrupt Oregon’s perfect season.
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