Both Army and Navy are 4-0 for the first time since 1945! While the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is certainly significant, the Midshipmen have their sights set on bigger aspirations this season. In a competitive American Athletic Conference, Navy is in control of its destiny.
Can the Midshipmen Contend for the AAC Championship?
Analyzing Navy’s Upcoming Schedule Using the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can forecast Navy’s remaining matchups. The Midshipmen are expected to be favorites in most of these games, and if they maintain their momentum, particularly with quarterback Blake Horvath leading the charge, they could have a shot at the College Football Playoff.
Navy (-3.5) @ Air Force (Projected Win) Always a thrilling matchup, Navy heads out west to face the Air Force Falcons on October 5. The FPM gives the Midshipmen a 60.6% chance of victory as 3.5-point favorites. While Air Force is well-coached, they are lacking in playmaking talent due to graduation losses and limited transfer options.
Navy’s offense should find plenty of opportunities against a Falcon team that typically engages in low-scoring battles, especially with a quarterback capable of stretching the field.
Navy (-8) vs. Charlotte (Projected Win) Charlotte has had a rough start to the 2024 season. Although Biff Poggi was expected to turn things around, the 49ers remain one of the struggling teams in the FBS.
Navy should secure a victory here, with an anticipated 6-0 start. The FPM indicates the Midshipmen are 8-point favorites, boasting a 73.8% chance of winning. Navy will aim to continue their strategy of solid defense, controlling the clock, and seizing opportunities for big plays.
Navy (+12.75) vs. Notre Dame (Projected Loss) While this game is forecasted as a loss, it won’t be catastrophic for Navy’s AAC title hopes. Notre Dame has shown vulnerabilities this season, especially after their unexpected defeat against Northern Illinois.
The Fighting Irish are nearly 13-point favorites, with a roughly 84% chance of defeating Navy. These odds may fluctuate depending on the upcoming games, but the Midshipmen will likely enter as significant underdogs. However, since this is an out-of-conference match, if Navy remains undefeated heading into the October 26 showdown, they could still be leading the AAC standings despite a loss.
Navy (-5.25) @ Rice (Projected Win) The FPM may be underestimating Rice, as the Owls have struggled mightily this season. Still, the Midshipmen are favored by more than five points right now, and that line is expected to increase based on recent performances.
According to FPM, the Midshipmen have a 64.6% chance of winning, even while playing on the road, suggesting that Navy’s pursuit of an AAC title will extend into November.
Navy (+1.75) @ USF (Projected Loss) This matchup against South Florida is one of the more intriguing remaining games. Although Navy will be on the road just north of Tampa, the Bulls haven’t been particularly impressive aside from a couple of competitive halves against top-10 teams. After their recent loss to Tulane, it’s possible that the Midshipmen could emerge as favorites for this game later in the week.
Currently, Navy is a slight underdog by just under two points, and since the home team in our model typically gets around two points, FPM rates these teams as nearly evenly matched. The Midshipmen have a 47.4% chance of winning, but if they remain undefeated in the conference, those odds could shift in their favor. Navy has the offensive capability to challenge a shaky USF defense.
Navy (+3.25) vs. Tulane (Projected Loss) Tulane is looking very strong this season, particularly with redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah gaining experience. After narrow contests against ranked teams like Oklahoma and Kansas State, Tulane has decisively beaten both South Florida and Louisiana, showcasing impressive form. They are currently favorites to win the AAC, but the Midshipmen will have a chance to compete against them, much like they did against Memphis. This game could have postseason implications when the time comes.
Navy (-8.25) @ ECU (Projected Win) East Carolina has shown itself to be an unpredictable team this year. While their defense has performed much better than expected, their offense has struggled to deliver consistent performances. The Pirates have lost recent games against App State and Liberty, both of which they were in position to win.
It’s possible that ECU may look very different in a month and a half, and I don’t fully agree with FPM’s projected 74.2% win probability for Navy. However, this game marks the Midshipmen’s AAC finale, and if a conference championship spot is at stake, Navy will be prepared.
Navy (-3.25) vs. Army (Projected Win) Let’s take a moment here: Even though Navy and Army are now in the same conference, this game is not part of conference play. Regardless, this matchup is shaping up to be one of the most exciting Army-Navy games in a while, with both teams boasting talented dual-threat quarterbacks and a level of wide receiver talent not seen in many years.
When there’s nothing at stake, this matchup is still significant. However, this season, with a slim chance for one of these teams to qualify for a prestigious bowl game or even the College Football Playoff, it becomes even more monumental.
Typically, these games are low-scoring, but the trust each coach places in their offense could turn this into one of the rare Army-Navy shootouts. Currently, the Midshipmen have a 58.9% chance of victory.
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