There are currently 10 undefeated teams in college football, and surprisingly, none are from the SEC.
After eight weeks of play, the SEC is looking more wide-open than ever, with five teams having a 30% to 50% chance of making it to Atlanta, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Tennessee experienced the largest rise in playoff odds (22%) after defeating Alabama, while Alabama’s chances of reaching the College Football Playoff dropped by 25%.
In Week 9, no game will have a greater impact on the CFP race than the matchup between LSU and Texas A&M. However, the Friday night clash between Boise State and UNLV will also significantly affect both the Mountain West Conference standings and Group of 5 playoff positioning.
This is the result of the 12-team CFP format, which has brought Boise State and UNLV into the spotlight, alongside surprising teams like Indiana, Kansas State, and even Army and Navy. This season has seen its share of unexpected contenders and major letdowns.
College football experts Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg have been discussing both the surprises and disappointments, gathering insights from sources about the key storylines to watch in Week 9.
Which team has been the biggest disappointment this season?
Dinich: If we’re giving out grades, FSU definitely earns an F. The decline has been significant — from a top contender in the ACC to an afterthought not only in the conference but also in its own state, as rival Miami has taken the lead.
It’s one thing to miss a few targets in the transfer portal, but the problems in Tallahassee appear to run much deeper. Out of 82 players returning from last season’s ACC championship team — many of whom were recruited by Coach Mike Norvell — expectations have turned into disappointments.
What were meant to be strengths have become weaknesses. Florida State boasted the most experienced offensive line in the ACC, with 190 starts among them, yet they are averaging just 2.5 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per play, along with a mere 13.7 points on offense.
Where is the on-field leadership? It departed along with the 10 NFL draft picks.
To make matters worse, this is the school that has been the loudest about needing more financial support from the ACC. This is the institution suing its own conference, and now it has managed to win just one game.
Rittenberg: FSU is clearly the standout answer here. As a Power 4 coach recently asked, “How can a team go from the ACC championship game to this level of performance?” However, Oklahoma is certainly in the running for the most disappointing team. When I ranked teams’ future power back in June and placed Oklahoma at No. 16, I received more feedback from Sooners fans than any other group. My prediction wasn’t that harsh, and Oklahoma has shown some improvement on defense this fall, but their offensive issues run deep—well beyond the recent coordinator change made by Brent Venables. Even Venables has referred to the offense as “an abomination” so far.
Injuries have been a factor, particularly among wide receivers, but the struggles along the offensive line—once a strong area under long-time assistant Bill Bedenbaugh—are especially alarming. The line has faced significant turnover from 2023 due to departures to the NFL and the transfer portal, and the return of personnel hasn’t worked out as hoped. Oklahoma has used six different starting line combinations in seven games, with only two players—North Texas transfer Febechi Nwaiwu and holdover Jacob Sexton—starting every game. The Sooners rank 132nd out of 133 teams in sacks allowed (29) and 124th in rushing yards per attempt (3.07).
Dinich: You know what else deserves the “abomination” label? USC’s loss to Maryland. Not only did they lose, but they blew a 14-point lead along the way. USC needs to tape the word “finish” to each helmet, as they’ve lost four games by a total of just 14 points—each time while leading in the second half. Despite the offseason buzz surrounding defensive improvements under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the defense allowed two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter at College Park. To lose against Maryland—with one of the most indifferent fan bases, many of whom left before the Terrapins’ win—was shameful. Coach Lincoln Riley still gets a bit of leniency due to the circumstances he inherited and the fact that this wasn’t expected to be their year. Next season, however, the expectation will be to win these types of games.
Rittenberg: Michigan shouldn’t escape criticism either, especially since they’ve rarely managed to close out games (see what I did there, HD?). The Wolverines lost several key players and coaches to the NFL, but promoting offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to head coach—and promoting quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell to offensive coordinator—was intended to maintain stability. However, Michigan has had three starting quarterbacks in seven games and ranks 109th nationally in total QBR. Although Jack Tuttle set a team season high with 208 passing yards against Illinois, he frequently missed open targets for significant gains. Moore hasn’t publicly named a starter for this week’s game against Michigan State, but Tuttle, who was always seen as the top choice once recovering from an elbow injury, is likely to get another opportunity.
The defense is also puzzling, given the high-end talent at all three levels. Michigan ranks 96th in passing yards allowed and 57th in pass efficiency defense. There are valid concerns about whether first-year coordinator Wink Martindale, who has spent the last 20 seasons in the NFL, is maximizing the personnel at his disposal.
“He’s an excellent defensive playcaller, but college football presents different challenges,” noted a Big Ten coordinator. “The NFL is very pass-heavy, so there are certain considerations that aren’t an issue there.”
How did Clemson turn things around so much from Week 1?
Rittenberg: Clemson coach Dabo Swinney left Atlanta feeling more optimistic than many expected, despite a 34-3 defeat to Georgia. The Tigers squandered opportunities right from their first offensive play, which Swinney described as “a layup” for a 20- to 30-yard gain that Cade Klubnik mishandled by throwing low to Phil Mafah. “They were upset,” Swinney noted about his players, “because physically, we held our own. The score doesn’t tell the whole story. They left the game frustrated but also feeling confident.”
Since that loss, Clemson has scored 40 or more points in five of their last six games. Swinney attributes this success to the consistency in personnel and coordinator Garrett Riley, the rise of Antonio Williams, a reliable and deep receiving corps, Mafah’s consistent power, and an offensive line that has become “very connected” under Matt Luke. Swinney described Klubnik as “a completely different player,” noting the improvements in his physicality, decision-making, and mental approach.
“He hasn’t faced much adversity in his football career,” Swinney remarked about Klubnik, referring to last season. “With three state championships and being the MVP of the [ACC] championship game, he had everything going for him. Looking at last year’s quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels was a fifth-year player, [Michael] Penix was in his sixth year, and Bo Nix was also a fifth-year player who was quickly dismissed at Auburn. Kade is an extremely talented player. Not everyone will be a Heisman candidate as a true freshman or first-year starter.”
Another significant factor is Williams, whom Swinney praised as “an absolute beast of a receiver.” Clemson typically relied on having one or two standout receivers each season, but they had a gap until now.
“Antonio can play any [wide receiver] position,” Swinney said, highlighting the dynamic skill sets multiple players bring to the team.
Dinich: Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson studied a lot of Clemson film in preparation for their game on October 12, which resulted in a 49-14 loss. He noted that the biggest difference for Clemson this season is the improvement of their offensive line, crediting Luke for his significant impact on their success.
Clawson pointed out that Klubnik has also been performing better and that Clemson seems more at ease in their second season under Riley.
“Part of their improvement lies in their offensive line playing at a completely different level,” Clawson stated. “Matt Luke is doing an outstanding job with that unit. Klubnik has gotten bigger, faster, and stronger. He looks more athletic now, and their receivers are also more skilled.”
Clawson mentioned that Clemson has returned to being difficult to defend against in both the run and the pass.
“When Clemson was at their peak, winning national championships, they forced defenses to make tough choices—try to double cover their receivers and risk the run with Travis Etienne, or stack the box and let Trevor Lawrence and the offense exploit you,” he explained. “Now, they’ve regained that ability to excel in both facets.”
Who has been the nation’s best defensive player?
Dinich: South Carolina edge rusher Kyle Kennard is a formidable presence for any quarterback. Standing tall at 6-foot-5 and weighing 254 pounds, this senior from Atlanta ranks fourth in the nation with 8.5 sacks and second with 13.5 tackles for loss. He also has two forced fumbles, putting him fourth overall in that category.
The transfer from Georgia Tech has recently made it onto the Chuck Bednarik Award and Lombardi Award watch lists, and he was ranked No. 15 in ESPN’s midseason list of the top 25 players. Kennard recorded three tackles for loss against Alabama.
“He’s incredibly driven,” commented South Carolina coach Shane Beamer. “As an experienced player from Georgia Tech, he has been clear about his goals since joining us in January. He fully committed himself, worked hard in the weight room, accepted coaching, and is playing with great confidence right now.”
Rittenberg: Kennard has been outstanding, and so has Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton, another defensive end who transferred into the SEC. Regarded as one of the top transfers after leading the Big Ten in sacks at Purdue last season with 10, Scourton has made a significant impact for the Aggies and their first-year coach, Mike Elko. With 15 tackles for loss last season, he has already notched 11 this fall, alongside 3.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss in SEC games alone.
The 6-foot-4, 285-pound Scourton had a breakout performance against Arkansas, recording two sacks, four tackles for loss, and a strip sack in the closing minutes of a tight game. Elko noted that the team “had a gap” at defensive end and specifically sought out Scourton, who grew up just a short distance from Kyle Field.
“He brings a lot to the table; he can rush the quarterback, disrupt plays, and is a smart player who can drop into coverage, although we don’t do that often,” Elko explained. “He has a versatile skill set and has thrived in our system. When opponents leave him in one-on-one situations, he can make a significant impact on the game.”
Elko mentioned that Scourton has started to face double-teams and chip blocks since his standout performance against Arkansas. This week, he will contend with an LSU offensive line that boasts two top NFL draft prospects at tackle: Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr.
“It’s an exciting matchup,” Elko said. “We have numerous NFL-caliber defensive linemen, and they have a strong lineup of NFL offensive linemen. I expect both sides to bring their A-game.”
What team is an under-the-radar CFP contender no one is talking about?
Rittenberg: Over the past two weeks, I witnessed two teams, LSU and Illinois, win significant games in person. LSU hasn’t made a trip to the College Football Playoff since clinching the national title in 2019 and currently lacks its usual array of top-tier talent. In a recent chat with an LSU insider, I mentioned that I believed Ole Miss, whom the Tigers narrowly defeated in overtime on October 12, had a stronger roster overall. The reply was, “I don’t think it’s close.” However, LSU stands at 3-0 in SEC play, on a six-game winning streak following a tough loss to USC, and is showing increased confidence and cohesion on defense. Despite the loss of standout linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a knee injury, contributions from linebackers Whit Weeks and Greg Penn III, as well as defensive ends Bradyn Swinson and Sai’vion Jones, have been impactful. During the last two games, Weeks has recorded 27 tackles, two sacks, and his first interception.
“If you were to ever lose a player at a specific position, that’s the only spot where we could manage without a major setback,” Kelly told me, referring to Perkins. “Losing a great player like him is tough, but having both Penn and Weeks on the field helps us mitigate that loss.”
Illinois may not currently be on the CFP radar for many, but they have three victories against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 (none currently ranked), with their only loss being a respectable one on the road against Penn State. What stood out to me in their matchup with Michigan last week was how much they resembled coach Bret Bielema’s championship teams at Wisconsin—strong along the line of scrimmage, versatile in their running game, and demonstrating a complementary style of play. Bielema claimed Big Ten titles at Wisconsin in 2010, 2011, and 2012 before leaving for Arkansas, so he certainly knows the key to success in this league.
Bielema mentioned that he’s employing different schemes at Illinois than he did at Wisconsin, particularly with a quicker tempo and varied personnel, but added, “The outcomes are starting to resemble those previous successes.”
Dinich: While teams like Iowa State and BYU are receiving plenty of attention, K-State deserves equal recognition for its performance since the loss to BYU. The team is still adjusting with a new offensive line and first-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson, but visible progress is being made. Their running game is among the best nationally, led by junior DJ Giddens, a true playmaker defenses need to account for.
“Last week was a prime example,” said K-State coach Chris Klieman. “West Virginia focused on stopping DJ Giddens, so we shifted to using three or four wide receivers and focused on passing rather than utilizing Avery as a runner. This strategy proved successful. The confidence our offense is gaining is tremendous; we’re showing we can win not just through ball control and defense but with explosive passing plays as well.”
The defensive line has also been performing well, creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, contributing to back-to-back wins over Colorado and West Virginia. K-State has scored eight touchdowns from its tight ends, with four different players contributing two each.
K-State is favored in all remaining games except for their regular-season finale against Iowa State. If they can win that matchup, they’ll have a shot at the CFP.
Now, let’s see what else is buzzing this week.
Dinich: Boise State has long been the favored Group of 5 team to reach the CFP, validated by a close game against now-No. 1 Oregon in early September. As they head into a Friday night game against UNLV, Boise State holds the top résumé among Group of 5 schools and a 47% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
However, UNLV is also in pursuit of this goal, benefiting from home-field advantage and their fourth Friday night game of the season. The Rebels are fully aware of the stakes.
“Anyone who says they’re not paying attention to that is lying,” said UNLV coach Barry Odom. “Since the start of the season, we’ve known that our margin for error is almost nonexistent if we want a spot at the 12-team playoff. We believe we’re in a good position due to our nonconference schedule and what we’ve accomplished, making this opportunity very real and exciting for our program. We’ve put in a lot of effort and had numerous discussions about our aspirations, and now we’re on the doorstep, eager to knock.”
UNLV may be more battle-tested than Boise State, with road wins at Houston, Kansas, and Oregon State. Their only loss was an overtime defeat to Syracuse on a Friday night. Odom noted that since then, the term “finish” has been a recurring theme in practice.
“Some of the greatest lessons come from losses,” he stated. “It’s frustrating to lose that game with so many opportunities, which makes the recent win against Oregon State feel even more rewarding because we successfully finished the game.”
Undefeated Miami continues to find ways to win, including in back-to-back road games against Cal and Louisville. However, they’ve made things difficult for themselves, winning their last three outings by a touchdown or less. They haven’t secured a double-digit victory since September 21 against South Florida. Despite averaging 48.2 points per game—ranking second in the nation in scoring offense—they have committed at least one turnover in each of their last three games ahead of a rivalry match with Florida State.
Coach Mario Cristobal believes the team is “very capable” of creating more comfortable fourth-quarter scenarios.
“We demonstrated this earlier in the season, but we created tight games ourselves,” he explained. “We’ve been more reckless with the ball lately. We’re conditioned to get stronger as the game progresses, but we can definitely play more consistently, execute better, and avoid careless mistakes, penalties, and other missteps.”
Notre Dame’s defense has kept them in the CFP conversation since their home loss to Northern Illinois, and they will face a challenge on Saturday against an undefeated Navy squad with the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the nation (44.8 points per game).
Notre Dame is limiting opponents to 279 yards per game (10th in the nation), 4.36 yards per play (6th), and 113 rushing yards per game (30th). Navy excels in rushing, averaging 274.8 yards on the ground. Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden highlighted the effectiveness of their defensive tackles, Rylie Mills and Howard Cross III.
“They’ve made a significant impact, especially in stopping the run,” he said.
Notre Dame has little margin for error if they aim for the CFP, but Golden stated that head coach Marcus Freeman has been exceptional in keeping the team focused.
“We’re not overly concerned with the big picture,” he added. “We’re improving and playing more complementary football, helping each other across different aspects of our game. It’s crucial not to stress over external factors; we just need to focus on practicing and performing well, which is a credit to Marcus’s leadership.”
Rittenberg: Pitt will put its perfect 6-0 record on the line Thursday night against surprising ACC counterpart Syracuse (5-1). Quarterbacks Eli Holstein and Kyle McCord will be central figures. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi told me that Holstein, the Alabama transfer with 1,697 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, along with 266 rushing yards and three scores, has been “the biggest reason” for the team’s resurgence from last season’s 3-9 record. Under new coordinator Kade Bell, the offensive vibe has shifted dramatically.
“We didn’t overhaul the entire roster with 45 transfers,” Narduzzi remarked. “We’ve always been solid defensively, but having a quarterback capable of making plays with his feet is game-changing. Kade has revitalized the offense, creating excitement and confidence, allowing us to move the ball and score.”
Narduzzi recalled how last year, during a low point marked by a 58-7 loss to Notre Dame, the defense generated turnovers, but the offense failed to capitalize. “The entire defense was looking at the bench,” he reflected. However, balance has returned for Pitt thanks to Bell and players like Holstein and Desmond Reid, an all-purpose back who has shined with 494 rushing yards and 341 passing yards.
“Kade is an incredible coach,” Narduzzi praised. “He brings creativity to the game plan and executes it well. Being young, he has a strong coaching background—his dad played in both the NFL and CFL—making him intuitive and quick to understand.”
Diego Pavia’s personality and playing style often overshadow his impressive efficiency, with 11 touchdown passes and only one interception while completing 66.2% of his throws. Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea describes Vanderbilt’s offense as “game-control,” focusing on manageable third downs (8th nationally at 52.1% conversions), red zone efficiency (6th in scoring percentage), and limiting possessions (18th in fewest defensive drives).
Pavia’s rapport with offensive coordinator Tim Beck—dating back to their time at New Mexico State—has helped him identify opportunities for big plays while maintaining the discipline needed to compete against more talented opponents.
“What people see on the field is him enjoying himself, showcasing his swagger and edge,” Lea noted. “But he’s making smart, precise decisions with the ball, using the full play clock to read defenses and delivering quick, accurate throws.”
Vanderbilt has notable victories over Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia Tech this season, but facing Texas—after their first loss—will be their toughest challenge yet.
“They’re fast and explosive in every area,” Lea warned. “We must avoid any lapses in any phase of our game, as they can capitalize quickly.”
In what’s shaping up to be the premier Group of 5 matchup this season, Boise State’s offense will clash with UNLV’s defense. UNLV is tied for 4th nationally in takeaways with 16 and ranks 20th against the run. Boise State, on the other hand, is tied for 5th nationally for fewest turnovers with just four and possesses the leading running back in Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty, who has racked up 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, leading the nation’s second-best run offense.
“They’ve improved even since the [Mountain West] championship game,” said Boise State coach Spencer Danielson, whose team defeated UNLV to secure the league title last season. “They do a great job of forcing turnovers and have been strong against the run, making for a compelling matchup.”
Wisconsin’s recent success, particularly on defense, can be attributed to a long-standing program principle: discipline. The Badgers have conceded only one touchdown in their last three games and have limited opponents to a conversion rate of just 19.1% on third downs, leading the nation this October. Wisconsin also ranks first nationally in points allowed, yards allowed, and passing yards allowed for the month.
The Badgers are averaging only four penalties per game this season, placing them 8th nationally, a significant improvement from last year’s 52nd rank.
“Every advantage matters for us,” coach Luke Fickell told me. “I was surprised by our average performance last year. For a team working to find its identity, this discipline is critical. It affects our execution as well.”
Fickell commended the defensive front for effectively limiting explosive plays at crucial moments. Alongside traditional contributors like safety Hunter Wohler, cornerback Ricardo Hallman, and linebacker Jake Chaney, safety Preston Zachman has stood out, recording interceptions in three of the last five games and offering increased versatility to the defense.
The upcoming challenge with Penn State, which ranks 7th nationally in average plays of 10 yards or longer (18.2 per game), presents a significant test for Wisconsin.
“They pose a unique challenge in preparation due to their multifaceted and explosive offense,” Fickell remarked about Penn State.
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