Evaluating Missouri Football in four game increments throughout the 2024 season

Getting ready for kickoff…

Think of this series as a quarterly check-in to assess the season’s progress. We’ll track how our expectations evolve throughout the year and assign a grade that reflects the current period rather than individual games. As we go along, we’ll highlight interesting and effective aspects of the scheme while also offering predictions for the next four games.

Let’s begin by establishing our expectations:

Expectations are key

One reason the 2023 Missouri Tigers were such an exciting team and will be remembered is that they surpassed all reasonable preseason expectations, along with some that were unrealistic.

Before the season kicked off, we recognized the need for the offense to improve under new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. We also needed clarity at the quarterback position, whether it was Brady Cook or Sam Horn; what mattered most was evident progression. Ultimately, this all had to translate into wins—this team couldn’t afford to end up with another 6-7 win record.

As the season progressed, it was rewarding to see our goals being accomplished one by one, culminating in an impressive 11-win season and a bowl victory over Ohio State. This brought a sense of happiness and satisfaction.

However, due to last year’s success, expectations have been raised. This team is well-constructed and boasts some of the best talent we’ve seen on a Missouri roster. Combined with their effective use of the transfer portal and the players they retained, the clear expectation is to secure a spot in the expanded playoff.

So, how can the 2024 Missouri Tigers live up to these expectations? To make the playoffs, they must achieve at least 10 wins. While many analysts have pointed out the favorable schedule for the Tigers, this outlook can be misleading. With the current high level of roster turnover, it’s challenging to gauge a team’s true strength in the offseason, especially in a revamped SEC where 13 out of 16 teams rank in the top 25 for talent.

In the short term, it’s crucial to handle the early part of the schedule effectively. Slip-ups against teams like Vanderbilt or even Boston College are not an option. A playoff-caliber team must win those games, particularly at home.

Looking ahead, there are two critical areas from last season that need improvement.

Missouri ranked 43rd in the nation for third down conversion rate last season, while every College Football Playoff team since 2020 has finished in the top 25. Additionally, despite the 2023 team’s strengths, they had significant issues with penalties, placing 120th in the country with an average of 7.2 penalties per game. Improvements in this area are essential.

1st Quarter Predictions:

• vs. Murray State: I expect Missouri to handle this game easily; it should be a one-sided affair. Prediction: 48-14.
• vs. Buffalo: Similar to Murray State, Buffalo won’t be able to keep up with Missouri for long. This will likely be another blowout. Prediction: 51-21.
• vs. Boston College: Boston College will be the first true test for Missouri. With experienced dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos and a talented backfield, they pose a challenge. Bill O’Brien’s presence as the new offensive coordinator adds an interesting aspect, as he’s known for his offensive acumen. However, Boston College has some weaknesses in the trenches and lacks explosive playmakers on the perimeter. I believe Missouri will win a competitive game. Prediction: 31-21.
• vs. Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt’s situation is unpredictable due to their extensive roster turnover, bringing in new players from various sources. I have respect for coach Clark Lea, but I don’t see them competing strongly in this matchup. Missouri takes the win, 45-10.