In the middle of the college football season, ESPN’s FPI algorithm still sees high value in the Alabama Crimson Tide. It is important for fans to recall that the FPI is intended to be a predictive formula. Instead of ranking teams based on their current performance, the model predicts their future game outcomes.
Alabama Crimson Tide had trouble defeating South Carolina, yet they maintained their position as the third-best team in college football according to the updated FPI. South Carolina ascended nine positions in the FPI ranking to reach No. 26.
A prime illustration of the strange appearance of the FPI is the current placement of Ohio State at No. 2 and the Oregon Ducks at No. 8 in the rankings. On Saturday, the Ducks defeated the Buckeyes by a score of 32-31.
The FPI is crucial for determining the CFB Playoff chances of legitimate contenders. Alabama Football had a 70% chance of reaching the Playoffs before the South Carolina game. Following the narrow victory against the Gamecocks, the percentage decreased slightly to 68.9%.
As per the latest FPI data, 15 teams have a probability greater than 28.2% of making it to the Playoff field. The Texas Longhorns are ahead with a 95.9% lead. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Miami, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Indiana, Boise State, Tennessee, Clemson, Texas A&M, and BYU are the remaining 14 teams with respective percentages of 84.3%, 81%, 75.2%, 73.2%, 68.9%, 68.4%, 57.4%, 53.2%, 47.3%, 46.5%, 46.2%, 44.6%, 32.8%, and 32.7%.
Even after a loss to LSU in overtime on Saturday night, Ole Miss held on to their No. 5 ranking in the FPI. The Rebels’ chances of making the playoffs decreased to 23.6% after their second defeat. LSU’s victory led to a rise of one spot in the FPI rankings to No. 14 and an increase in their Playoff chances to 26.4%.
The ESPN FPI rankings list the SEC teams as: 1) Texas Longhorns; 3) Alabama Crimson Tide, 4) Georgia Bulldogs; 5) Ole Miss Rebels; 7) Tennessee Vols; 12) Texas A&M Aggies; 14) LSU Bengal Tigers; 18) Missouri Tigers; 20) Oklahoma Sooners; 25) Arkansas Razorbacks; 26) South Carolina Gamecocks; 32) Kentucky Wildcats; 34) Auburn Tigers; 35) Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 59) Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Alabama Crimson Tide and the SOS of other teams vying for a spot in the Playoff.
The SEC has seven teams in contention for the Playoffs, each with a likelihood of 23.6% or greater of making the 12-team field. ESPN’s assessment of the remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) for every team displays a large variation. Georgia faces the most challenging route with a No. 2 strength of schedule (among all FBS teams). Texas is ranked eighth, Texas A&M is ranked ninth, LSU is at number thirteen, Alabama is at number fourteen, Tennessee is at number sixteen, and Ole Miss is at number thirty-two.
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