North Carolina aims to end its two-game losing streak with a home victory against Pittsburgh this Saturday. The Tar Heels are entering as 3-point underdogs, looking to build on their aim for a third consecutive win in their series against Pitt. Head coach Mack Brown faces a Pitt team that hasn’t triumphed in Chapel Hill, having a record of 0-7 against the Tar Heels and Pat Narduzzi’s 2-6 history against UNC.
Inside Carolina experts Jason Staples and Taylor Vipolis shared their pregame insights on The Game Plan show this week, highlighting ways UNC can exploit vulnerabilities and offering final score predictions for Saturday’s matchup. Key topics included the Tar Heels’ wavering confidence and the similarities between Pitt’s offense and James Madison’s. Here’s their analysis:
UNC’S MORALE AT A LOW UNDER MACK BROWN 2.0 Vipolis: “Carolina has lost two of its most winnable games. If the goal is a bowl game, the Tar Heels are starting to enter must-win territory. Morale-wise, it feels like a necessity. The atmosphere within the team is at an all-time low under Mack Brown 2.0, and it could worsen. Their shaken confidence against supposedly weaker opponents is concerning, evident in their doubt and hesitation on the field.”
TAR HEELS AS A ‘FRAGILE’ TEAM HEADING INTO WEEK 6 Staples: “This is a fragile team. With a new defensive coordinator and key players on the offensive line, there was hope for a physical style of play, but recent performances have tested their belief. Players are showing signs of doubt both in mindset and body language. Establishing an early lead against Pitt will be crucial for maintaining confidence.”
UNC’S DEFENSE LACKS CONFIDENCE POST-DUKE GAME Staples: “The defense had some success last week but felt let down by the offense. This has led to a fracture in trust, which is detrimental. Defensive coordinators hate getting beaten repeatedly up the middle, and that’s exactly what Duke did. The defense must find a way to rebuild its confidence; focusing on positives from the first half is essential.”
PITT HAS A CLEAR IDENTITY; UNC STRUGGLES WITH ITS OWN Vipolis: “Pitt knows its style and how to play physically. UNC, however, lacks a clear identity. It’s unpredictable which version of the team will show up. Pitt relies on tight coverage and aggressive run support, while UNC needs to utilize play-action to create opportunities for Jacolby Criswell. His play-action PFF grade is significantly better than his standard passing grade.”
UNC’S OFFENSE CAN THRIVE WITH PLAY-ACTION Staples: “Jacolby has excelled with intermediate throws, which set up deep plays against Pitt’s coverage. The real issue is solid pass protection, especially at tackle. Pitt will apply pressure, and UNC needs to ensure Criswell is protected to change the flow of the game.”
UNC’S WRs WON’T INTIMIDATE PITT Vipolis: “The concern is that opponents will stack the box against Carolina’s receivers, who don’t strike fear. This has made it tough for running back Omarion Hampton, who faces contact behind the line too often.”
A WR MUST EMERGE AS A DEEP THREAT Staples: “Another receiver must step up beyond Nesbit. UNC needs someone to break away for significant yardage. Running Hampton alone won’t suffice; Pitt will overload the box. They need a few deep strikes to secure the win.”
PITT’S OFFENSE MIRRORS JMU’S Vipolis: “I’m anxious for UNC’s defense given their similarities to JMU’s offense. QB Eli Holstein, though inconsistent, is an effective runner. Running quarterbacks have historically troubled UNC, and the return of running back Rodney Hammond Jr. adds to Pitt’s offensive threat.”
HOLSTEIN’S LEGS BALANCE PITT’S PASS PROBLEMS Staples: “Fatigue in UNC’s defensive line contributed to last week’s struggles. The defensive tackles must perform to contain Pitt’s running game. If they load the box, Holstein’s mobility can create issues, reminiscent of Sam Howell. Although Pitt has pass-protection issues, Holstein compensates effectively.”
FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS Vipolis: “This Pitt offense resembles JMU’s, which posed challenges for Carolina. The home advantage is beneficial, but I question the fan turnout after recent disappointments. My lack of trust in UNC’s defense and receivers makes me predict Pitt wins 34-24.”
Staples: “Pitt’s 4-0 record is deceptive, as they’ve faced challenges. I believe Criswell will shine in this game. While I have concerns about pass protection, I think Carolina can score if appropriately defended against the run. I’m predicting a close one, with Carolina edging out 34-31.”
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