NHL

He Checks Every Box: High-Scoring Sniper, 26, With Proven 40-Goal And 30+ Goal Seasons On The Market

Nero Scofield

Patrik Laine: He Checks Every Box

At the top of the New York Islanders’ wishlist has been acquiring a skilled goal scorer who can also serve as a top-line player. This need arose when Jordan Eberle departed from the team in 2021. Now, a 26-year-old sharpshooter with a 40-goal season under his belt and several seasons with 30 or more goals is on the market. What’s even more appealing is that he’s available at a reasonable price.

Patrik Laine has formally requested a trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Laine joined Columbus at the start of the 2020-21 season following a trade from the Winnipeg Jets. During his brief tenure of less than four seasons with the team, he has played under four different head coaches – an unusually high turnover rate. Although Mike Babcock was there only briefly, three of them actually coached Laine in games. The Blue Jackets have seen changes in their general managers, a revolving door of players, and have fallen far short of playoff contention.

In essence, Laine’s struggles to settle in Columbus are not surprising given the turbulent environment within the organization. Recent years have been marked by significant difficulties for the team, finishing last in their division in three of the last four seasons. Just this past season, Laine made a very public and courageous decision to seek assistance from the Player’s Assistance Program for his well-being.

Breaking Down Patrik Laine

Laine has not completed a full season since 2019-20, which is a significant cause for concern. Nevertheless, throughout his career, he has maintained a pace of over 30 goals per season, with the exception of the unique circumstances surrounding the 2020-21 season when he was traded from Winnipeg. This season, he appeared in only 18 games, with his last game before Christmas, where he achieved six goals and three assists. This performance matches his lowest points per game output, a record set during the peculiar 2020-21 season.

This season proved to be unconventional for Laine, despite the diminished point production over a very limited sample size. He ventured into playing center in actual games while registering the lowest Time On Ice (TOI) of his career. Typically averaging around 18 minutes per game, he only received 15 minutes per game this season, potentially impacting his overall output.

As he enters his eighth season in the league, Laine’s career has been characterized by both highs and lows. Renowned for his exceptional talent, he is considered one of the premier shooters in the NHL. Laine has the capability to achieve much more than his current performance in Columbus, particularly given the lack of significant talent surrounding him.

It’s a Risk Worth Taking

I understand that there is apprehension about taking a chance on Laine due to his past issues. However, he possesses the most innate talent among all top-six forwards currently on the market. Every player comes with imperfections, and Laine’s challenges appear to stem from the environment in which he has been placed. Winnipeg essentially pushed him out, and Columbus has struggled to provide the right support throughout his time there.

In comparison to Nikolaj Ehlers, another prime trade target for the Islanders who was Laine’s former teammate in Winnipeg, Laine emerges as the superior player. Despite their close standing, Laine outshines Ehlers. While Ehlers faced a reduction in ice time and role over the last two seasons, Laine’s potential stands out. Although Ehlers faced scoring struggles in the 22-23 season, he excelled this year, achieving his highest point total since 2016-17. Currently, Ehlers’ value is at its peak, whereas Laine’s is relatively low.

The key disparity between the two lies in their potential. Laine boasts a higher upside, particularly in terms of his exceptional shooting abilities compared to Ehlers. Coupled with Laine being two years younger, the argument for acquiring him over Ehlers becomes obvious. Laine presents a combination of youth, skill, and affordability that makes him a more attractive option. Despite the risks involved, Laine’s potential makes him a compelling choice.

The Salary is the Question

Up to now, the elephant in the room has been overlooked. The main reason why acquiring Laine is seen as a risky move is quite simple. His current contract runs for another two years at 8.7π‘šπ‘–π‘™π‘™π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘Žπ‘›π‘›π‘’π‘Žπ‘™π‘™π‘¦.π‘‡β„Žπ‘–π‘ π‘–π‘ π‘Žπ‘ π‘’π‘π‘ π‘‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™π‘Žπ‘šπ‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘π‘™π‘Žπ‘¦π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘€β„Žπ‘œβ„Žπ‘Žπ‘ π‘›π‘œπ‘‘π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘π‘™π‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘‘π‘Žπ‘“π‘’π‘™π‘™π‘ π‘’π‘Žπ‘ π‘œπ‘›π‘–π‘›π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘ π‘‘π‘“π‘–π‘£π‘’π‘¦π‘’π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘ .πΌπ‘›π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘ π‘‘,πΈβ„Žπ‘™π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ β„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘π‘ π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘£π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘Žπ‘”π‘’.πΌπ‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘—π‘’π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘‘π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘œπ‘›π‘”βˆ’π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘šπ‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘π‘‘π‘’π‘₯π‘‘π‘’π‘›π‘ π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘“π‘œπ‘ŸπΈβ„Žπ‘™π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ π‘€π‘œπ‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘™π‘–π‘˜π‘’π‘™π‘¦π‘“π‘Žπ‘™π‘™π‘π‘’π‘‘π‘€π‘’π‘’π‘›7 and $7.5 million per year.

In order to bring Laine on board, it becomes imperative to free up some salary space. The Islanders currently only have slightly over $6 million available for this purpose. Merely trading Jean-Gabriel Pageau would not suffice to acquire Laine; additional steps must be taken. The Islanders would either need Columbus to partially retain salary or involve a third team in the deal. The expenses related to acquiring Laine would decrease significantly if no salary is retained by the selling team.

To accommodate Laine under the cap, some salary retention would likely be necessary, estimated at around 1.7π‘šπ‘–π‘™π‘™π‘–π‘œπ‘›,π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘¦π‘™π‘œπ‘€π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘›π‘”πΏπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘’β€²π‘ π‘Žπ‘›π‘›π‘’π‘Žπ‘™π‘π‘Žπ‘β„Žπ‘–π‘‘π‘‘π‘œ7 million. The more money that is retained, the more financial leeway it would provide the Islanders. However, the drawback of this approach lies in the costs associated with freeing up that space.

According to PuckPedia’s Perri Salary Cap Relief Calculator, taking on 1.7π‘šπ‘–π‘™π‘™π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘€π‘œπ‘ π‘’π‘Žπ‘ π‘œπ‘›π‘ π‘€π‘œπ‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘’π‘žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘”β„Žπ‘™π‘¦π‘Žπ‘šπ‘–π‘‘βˆ’π‘ π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘βˆ’π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘“π‘‘π‘π‘–π‘π‘˜,π‘Žπ‘›π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘‘β„Žπ‘’πΌπ‘ π‘™π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘ π‘ .πΉπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘šπ‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘’,π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘¦π‘Žπ‘™π‘ π‘œβ„Žπ‘œπ‘™π‘‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘ π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘βˆ’π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘π‘–π‘π‘˜.πΌπ‘“π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘’π‘‘π‘Žπ‘šπ‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘—π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘’π‘‘π‘‘π‘œ2.5 million per year, it would translate to an early second-round pick, specifically the 33rd overall pick, which marks the beginning of the second round.

This situation prompts the Islanders to ponder a critical question. How much value do they place on the extra cap flexibility? Is it worthwhile to trade away their first-round pick to secure the added flexibility of potentially acquiring Laine with a maximum of 50% retained salary? PuckPedia estimates that taking on $4.35 million over two years would require surrendering a mid-to-late first-round pick.

Making the Trade Itself

The task of finding a team willing to absorb that salary has grown more intricate. The Arizona Coyotes are no longer in the picture, and the Sharks have exhausted all three of their salary retention slots. The lone other struggling team with available cap space is the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks have all three of their salary retention spots open and do not have any significant contracts expiring in the next two seasons that might hinder them from taking on additional salary.

If the Islanders propose offering the Anaheim Ducks their 20th overall draft pick to cover half of Laine’s salary, would the Ducks accept the deal? While it is not guaranteed, it would likely be an appealing proposition for them. Subsequently, the focus shifts back to Columbus. It is presumed that Columbus would not solely desire future assets, particularly after recently extending Johnny Gaudreau’s contract until 2031.

Would Columbus exhibit interest in Jean-Gabriel Pageau? This remains uncertain. Columbus already has centers like the young Adam Fantilli and the experienced Boone Jenner. Pageau might not align perfectly with Columbus’s playing style. Nevertheless, earlier this year, Columbus executed a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Nylander, who did not perform exceptionally well in Pittsburgh.

Hence, it is worth considering the value that Oliver Wahlstrom brings to the negotiating table. Wahlstrom, aged 24, faced challenges during the recent season. Although his stock may be low currently, he possesses inherent talent. It is important to note that in this scenario, the Islanders are not requesting Columbus to retain any salary. Instead, they plan to leverage Anaheim to retain half of Laine’s salary cap.

Overall Cost and Final Thoughts

Could a package involving Wahlstrom, the 61st overall pick in this season’s draft, and the Islanders’ third-round pick in 2025 be sufficient to secure Laine? It is currently unclear what Columbus will demand in return, but such an offer presents the type of trade that would likely appeal most to Columbus. This proposal includes valuable draft assets for Columbus to keep for their roster or use in acquiring another player, along with a promising young player with high potential who is currently struggling to make a breakthrough.

So, in summary, this theoretical acquisition of Laine would entail the Islanders giving up the 61st overall pick, the 2025 third-round pick, and Oliver Wahlstrom. Depending on the amount of salary retention the Islanders can negotiate with Anaheim, the 20th overall pick could potentially reduce Laine’s cap hit to as little as $4.35 million for two seasons, representing a favorable deal.

By bringing Laine on board with 50% salary retention and subsequently trading Pageau – a player sought after by teams at the trade deadline – the Islanders would create ample space to re-sign their pending unrestricted and restricted free agents. This strategic move would also provide room to potentially add players like Kevin Stenlund or Anthony Duclair.

In this scenario, adaptability is of utmost importance. While acquiring Laine with 50% salary retention might come at a significant cost for the Islanders, it appears to offer their best chance at competing effectively. Ehlers is unlikely to have a salary as favorable as the reduced one Laine could have if he were to join the Islanders. Additionally, bringing Laine on board would give the Islanders a clear two-year timeframe to contend before they face the prospect of renegotiating Laine’s contract, all while managing new deals for players like Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and potentially Kyle Palmieri.

In the latter stages of Lou Lamoriello’s tenure as Team President and General Manager, there has been a perceived lack of effort in enhancing the team. This offseason presents a prime opportunity for him to acquire top-tier talent at more affordable rates. Whether it involves securing Laine or Ehlers, it is imperative for Lou to make significant additions to the team. With the draft looming in just 15 days, time is of the essence.

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