The Atlanta Braves are teetering on the edge of making a historical blunder that would cast a shadow over an otherwise stellar season. With one of the most dominant pitching staffs in Major League Baseball, the Braves should be coasting towards the postseason with confidence. However, their bats have failed to support their exceptional pitching, creating a precarious situation where they might miss the playoffs despite their incredible pitching performance. If the Braves do end up on the outside looking in, they will find themselves in the annals of history for all the wrong reasons.

At the beginning of the 2024 season, the Braves were not particularly renowned for their pitching prowess. The focus was squarely on their offensive firepower, and the pitching staff was considered to be competent but not extraordinary. Even with high-profile acquisitions such as Chris Sale, the pitching staff was expected to be merely average. Yet, as the season has unfolded, the Braves’ pitching has far exceeded expectations, evolving into the most dominant unit in baseball.

As of the most recent update, the Braves’ pitching staff ranks first in several critical categories across the league. They lead Major League Baseball in Earned Run Average (ERA) with a solid 3.51, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) at 3.46, and ERA+ at 119. They also top the league in strikeouts with 1,379 and fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) at 21.1. Their WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) is strong as well, standing at 1.21, good for sixth place. The starting pitchers are averaging 5.6 innings per start, the third-highest in the majors, and closer Raisel Iglesias boasts a remarkable 1.18 ERA.

With such a stellar pitching performance, one would assume that the Braves are in a comfortable position for the playoffs. However, the reality is far from this assumption. Despite their pitching excellence, the Braves are in a precarious position in the playoff race. They are currently one game behind the third wild card spot and just two and a half games away from securing the top wild card spot. The season has been marred by injuries and underperformance from key hitters, contributing to their current playoff dilemma.

To understand the gravity of the situation, it’s instructive to compare the Braves’ Opening Day lineup to the one that faced the Cincinnati Reds on September 9. The Opening Day lineup included Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, Orlando Arcia, and Jarred Kelenic. However, the September 9 lineup saw several changes: Michael Harris was back in center field (having missed two months earlier in the season), Jorge Soler took over in right field, Marcell Ozuna was designated hitter, Matt Olson was at first base, Sean Murphy was behind the plate, Jarred Kelenic was in left field, Gio Urshela was at third base, Orlando Arcia was at shortstop, and Luke Williams was at second base.

This lineup shift reflects a broader trend of injuries and underperformance. Even players who have been available have not consistently performed at their best. Arcia, Olson, and Adam Duvall have all experienced declines in production compared to the previous season. Murphy and Harris, when healthy, have also seen dips in their performance. The lack of consistency and the frequent lineup changes have undeniably affected the Braves’ ability to score runs effectively.

The essence of a World Series contender lies in two key components: strong pitching and timely hitting. The Braves have excelled in the first component, with their pitching staff being a formidable force on the mound. However, the second component, timely hitting, has been lacking. Despite having shut out 14 teams—tied for the most in baseball—the Braves have also been shut out 10 times. Of these shutouts, three were 1-0 losses. Winning just those three games would have placed the Braves in a much more secure position, potentially giving them the top wild card spot.

The narrow margins between making the playoffs and missing them underscore the gravity of the Braves’ situation. Historically, a team that excels in pitching yet fails to secure a postseason berth is a rare occurrence. The most recent example of such a phenomenon was the 2017 Cleveland Indians. Although they did not win the World Series, they at least made the playoffs with a formidable pitching staff. The closest parallel to the Braves’ situation is the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers. They led MLB in ERA, ERA+, and FIP, and were second in fWAR and third in strikeouts. However, their lack of offensive production ultimately led to their failure to make the playoffs.

In the history of Major League Baseball, the situation the Braves are in is unique. A team with such outstanding pitching, yet facing the possibility of missing the playoffs, has not been seen frequently. If the Braves fail to make the postseason despite their pitching excellence, it will be remembered as a historic disappointment.

The significance of this potential failure goes beyond mere statistics. It reflects the challenges that teams face when trying to balance strong pitching with effective hitting. For the Braves, the failure to capitalize on their pitching success due to offensive shortcomings is a poignant reminder of how fragile a team’s playoff hopes can be. The stark contrast between their pitching and hitting performance illustrates the complexities of building a successful baseball team.

If the Braves do end up missing the playoffs, it will serve as a lesson for future teams about the importance of maintaining balance between pitching and hitting. A dominant pitching staff can only take a team so far without support from a productive lineup. The Braves’ current situation highlights the necessity of a well-rounded approach to team building, where both pitching and hitting are given equal emphasis.

In conclusion, the Atlanta Braves are at risk of achieving an infamous feat if their bats do not come alive. Despite having one of the most dominant pitching staffs in recent memory, their inability to secure timely hits has placed them on the brink of missing the playoffs. This potential postseason miss would be a historic disappointment, given their pitching prowess and the narrow margins separating them from playoff contention. The Braves’ current predicament underscores the critical importance of balancing pitching and hitting to achieve postseason success. As the season nears its end, the Braves must address their offensive shortcomings to avoid an unwanted place in baseball history.