Minnesota is well ahead of last year’s pace at the All-Star break but well behind where it was in the standings a year ago. Will the Twins turn it on once play resumes?
A year ago, the Twins struggled with a losing record (45-46) leading into the All-Star break, raising questions about their future. Despite this, they were only a half-game behind the division leader due to the weak AL Central. After the break, they rallied with a 42-29 record, winning the division title and gaining momentum for their most successful postseason in over twenty years.
This season, the Twins have a better record at the break, standing at 54-42 despite a shaky 7-13 start. However, they are currently trailing Cleveland by 4½ games, with Kansas City close behind and Detroit showing improvement. While a wild-card spot or another division title is possible for the Twins this year, neither outcome is certain.
The Twins’ performance for the rest of the season will depend on three significant factors, as discussed by Patrick Reusse and others on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast.
Injuries: In their last game before the break on Sunday, the Twins had Diego Castillo at third base, Willi Castro at shortstop, and Manuel Margot in center field due to various players being sidelined. Royce Lewis has been out for two weeks, Carlos Correa is dealing with a foot injury, Jose Miranda is on the injured list with a back problem, and Byron Buxton was held back as a precaution after a hard collision with a wall on Saturday.
The positive side? The injuries don’t appear to be too severe, and most, if not all, of these players could return for the next game on Saturday. However, this situation underscores the vulnerability of a roster when faced with a wave of injuries.
Starting pitching: The Twins’ starting pitchers currently rank 24th in ERA this year, a stark contrast to their 2nd-place finish in that category last season, despite relatively good health for their preferred starters.
The silver lining? The Twins have received strong performances from their second to fifth starters this season, with Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober pitching like dependable mid-to-upper-rotation pitchers, while Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods-Richardson secure the back end. If Pablo Lopez (with a 5.11 ERA) could match his results from the previous year, the Twins would be on track for a top-10 starter ERA as a staff. They are counting on him to turn things around in the final two-plus months.
Schedule: Following the break, the Twins will encounter the seventh-toughest remaining schedule based on opponent winning percentage.
The bright side? Cleveland faces the second-toughest remaining schedule, giving the Twins a good chance to make up ground and surpass the Guardians in the division. The two teams will face each other eight more times this year, despite the Twins being winless in five games against Cleveland this season.
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