Major Dilemma: What is to Blame for the Tigers’ Red Zone Woes?

The Mizzou Tigers have started the 2024 football season with an undefeated record, boasting a 4-0 mark that many fans would eagerly celebrate. However, beneath this veneer of success lies a troubling issue that has caused increasing concern among supporters: the team’s inability to convert scoring opportunities in the red zone. Despite returning a talented roster that propelled them to a top 10 finish in 2023, Mizzou’s offense has not yet gelled into the explosive unit fans had hoped to witness. The current landscape reveals a perplexing paradox; the Tigers are winning games but are struggling to finish drives when it matters most.

In recent contests, particularly against Power Four competition, the statistics paint a stark picture. The Tigers have only managed to score four touchdowns in ten red zone trips, translating to a mere 40% touchdown rate. Given the expectations surrounding this season, such numbers are disheartening. So, what’s the root cause of these red zone woes? It’s a complex interplay of factors, but fundamentally, both poor play calling and execution are to blame.

While Kirby Moore has been the play caller for the Tigers over the past two seasons, it’s essential to differentiate between overall scoring efficiency and red zone effectiveness. Last year, Mizzou’s red zone scoring percentage ranked impressively high at #2 nationally, achieving a 97.87% rate. This season, however, the team has fallen to #44, with a lower percentage of 92.31%. The issue with these metrics is that they combine both touchdowns and field goals, glossing over the critical distinction between settling for three points and achieving the desired seven.

In modern football, defenses have increasingly adapted their strategies to counteract high-powered passing offenses. By implementing soft coverage schemes and deploying two deep safeties, they aim to limit explosive plays. This defensive adjustment allows teams to efficiently move the ball between the 20-yard lines, only to tighten the screws once they enter the red zone. Here, the field’s reduced size allows defenses to clamp down on both running and short passing games, significantly increasing the challenge for offenses.

The tactical reality is that defenses often view forcing opponents to settle for field goals as a victory. When an offense consistently scores three points rather than seven, it creates a substantial scoring gap. Two successful red zone possessions that yield field goals are outmatched by a single touchdown. Thus, for the Tigers, the emphasis must shift from merely getting into the red zone to maximizing those opportunities by scoring touchdowns.

Examining the Tigers’ recent red zone performance further reveals critical areas that need improvement. In the last two games, the offense made ten trips to the red zone, resulting in five scoring opportunities that produced two touchdowns and three field goal attempts. The overall play calling during these drives has reflected a concerning pattern: an over-reliance on running plays and an insufficient focus on effective passing strategies.

Diving deeper into the numbers, Mizzou executed 31 plays during their red zone trips, accumulating 90 total yards. Of those, only 16 were rushing attempts, generating 45 yards and two touchdowns. In stark contrast, the passing game was much more productive on a per-attempt basis, with eight passes resulting in 45 yards and two touchdowns as well. Notably, a significant portion of the offense’s effectiveness came from targeting standout receiver Luther Burden, who caught three passes for 41 yards and two touchdowns during this span. Yet, the Tigers have not leveraged Burden’s talents to their fullest potential.

To rectify the offensive inefficiency, strategic adjustments in play calling are crucial. The Tigers should prioritize play action to create opportunities for their most dynamic players. Burden has proven to be a reliable target in the red zone, and utilizing play action schemes can exploit defenses, forcing linebackers and safeties to make decisions that could leave Burden open. By creating mismatches and isolating him against less skilled defenders, Mizzou can significantly improve their touchdown conversion rate.

The current trend of relying on quarterback Brady Cook’s legs in the red zone also warrants scrutiny. Designed runs have not been effective; in fact, during the last two games, Cook recorded negative rushing yards on several attempts. This reliance on Cook not only risks injuries to a key player but also diverts attention from more effective play-calling strategies. The running game has averaged a mere 2.8 yards per carry, indicating that leaning too heavily on rushing plays may be counterproductive. Instead, it would be beneficial to allow Cook to focus on passing plays while utilizing running backs like Carroll and Noel, who have demonstrated a better ability to navigate tight spaces.

However, the issues do not lie solely with the play calling. Execution on the field has been inconsistent, which undermines even the best-laid plans. For instance, a failed designed run against Vanderbilt could have turned into a significant gain had it not been for a miscommunication with an offensive lineman. Such execution errors can derail drives and impact scoring opportunities. Moreover, pass protection has also proven problematic, with pressure causing Cook to miss open receivers at crucial moments.

Penalties, though not as prevalent in recent red zone possessions, still represent a potential threat to offensive efficiency. Even a single holding penalty can stall drives when the field is condensed, emphasizing the importance of discipline and execution. The Tigers need to address these issues swiftly, as the cumulative impact of poor execution can outweigh any advantages gained through improved play calling.

As the Tigers head into a bye week, this time can serve as an opportunity to reassess and refine their red zone strategies. The foundation for improvement is present; the team boasts the talent necessary to score touchdowns consistently. However, without a concerted effort to address the shortcomings in play calling and execution, the current trajectory may not be sustainable in the demanding landscape of SEC play.

Ultimately, while the Tigers are enjoying a winning season, their red zone struggles highlight a pressing need for improvement. The pressure will be on Kirby Moore and the offensive staff to adapt and implement strategies that capitalize on their strengths, particularly involving key players like Burden. If the Tigers can leverage their playmakers effectively and enhance their execution, the transition from field goals to touchdowns could lead to more consistent scoring and, consequently, greater success as the season progresses.

However, while the Mizzou Tigers have enjoyed an undefeated start to their season, the glaring red zone deficiencies cannot be ignored. Both play calling and execution have played significant roles in their inability to convert drives into touchdowns, and addressing these issues is crucial for sustaining their winning ways. With the right adjustments and a focus on maximizing their offensive potential, the Tigers can transform their red zone fortunes and capitalize on the talent that has brought them success thus far. The time is now for Mizzou to refine their strategies and turn their red zone woes into scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a more explosive and successful season ahead.