Massive Insight: What’s Next for Baylor? Speculation Grows Around Joey McGuire as Dave Aranda Faces Uncertainty

The landscape of college football is ever-evolving, and in the case of Baylor and Texas Tech, the shifting dynamics could lead to significant changes in the coaching ranks. As Baylor contemplates its future under Dave Aranda, a question looms large: if the Bears decide to part ways with their current head coach, will they turn their attention toward Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire? The backdrop of this inquiry is steeped in recent performances and historical context, painting a vivid picture of how fortunes have shifted in the Big 12 Conference.

Joey McGuire’s tenure at Texas Tech began amid a flurry of expectations and uncertainty. His arrival in Lubbock marked a new chapter for the Red Raiders, and while he faced challenges early on, including a memorable loss to Baylor two seasons ago, McGuire has steadily carved out a reputation as a rising star in college football coaching. The 45-17 defeat to Baylor not only represented McGuire’s worst loss by margin outside of a blowout against Texas but also served as a wake-up call for a program eager to return to competitiveness. Oddsmakers had favored Tech in that game, and the defeat felt particularly jarring given the sold-out atmosphere and the presence of Texas Tech legend Patrick Mahomes.

In hindsight, that loss now appears to be a turning point for both McGuire and the programs involved. Since that fateful night in October 2022, McGuire has guided the Red Raiders to a respectable 16-8 record. In contrast, Baylor’s fortunes have spiraled downward, with a troubling 5-17 record since November 2022. This stark contrast raises the question of whether Baylor will reassess its direction under Aranda, who has struggled to replicate the success of his predecessor, Matt Rhule.

Aranda’s record at Baylor stands at 25-29, a figure that masks the accomplishments of his second season when the Bears finished 12-2, won the Sugar Bowl, and ranked fifth nationally. However, much of that success was built on the foundation laid by Rhule and a roster populated with players recruited by McGuire during his tenure as an assistant coach at Baylor from 2017 to 2021. When Rhule departed for the NFL after the 2019 season, Aranda was seen as a natural successor due to his prior success as a defensive coordinator at prestigious programs like Wisconsin and LSU. However, his tenure has been characterized by inconsistency, leading to speculation about his job security as the Bears head toward what appears to be another disappointing season.

In the realm of college athletics, particularly in the high-stakes world of Power Five football, athletic directors often face immense pressure to deliver results. If Baylor does part ways with Aranda, it’s plausible that they would circle back to Joey McGuire. After all, the Bears had the opportunity to hire either candidate in January 2020, a decision that could haunt them if they conclude that McGuire is the right fit for the program. Given his successful stint at Texas Tech, it’s understandable why Baylor would consider him a viable candidate.

McGuire’s ascent as a head coach was not without its hurdles. When he was initially hired, many viewed him as an unproven commodity at the power-conference level, his coaching experience largely rooted in high school football. Even in 2022, nearly two years into his tenure, he wasn’t Texas Tech’s first choice for the job; Jeff Traylor of UT-San Antonio was. When Traylor opted to remain at UTSA, the Red Raiders turned to McGuire, who has since established himself as a charismatic and effective leader, fostering a sense of community and pride within the program.

The future of Dave Aranda at Baylor hinges on the team’s performance in the immediate future. A fourth losing season in five years is likely to raise eyebrows among university leadership and alumni, many of whom have high expectations for a program that once tasted great success. While financial considerations, including rising revenue-sharing costs for athletes, may cause some athletic directors to hesitate before making a change, the pressure to win is relentless in the world of college football. Aranda’s inability to sustain the success of his second season raises valid concerns about his long-term viability.

Should Baylor make a move, McGuire’s stock would undoubtedly rise. His tenure at Texas Tech has seen steady progress, culminating in a 20-12 overall record as he enters his third season. His deep ties to the Texas Tech community, where he previously served as an assistant coach, lend credibility to his commitment to the program. McGuire’s desire to remain in Lubbock is evident; he often expresses his love for the university and the region. As a former student who used to drive from UT-Arlington to watch Tech games, his connection runs deep.

One of the key factors in McGuire’s success at Texas Tech is the program’s robust support structure. The school has built a solid foundation for its NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) initiatives, allowing the Red Raiders to compete effectively for top talent. As discussions around college athletics increasingly focus on player compensation, having a competitive NIL program is crucial for attracting and retaining skilled players. McGuire’s leadership has enabled the Red Raiders to capitalize on these resources effectively, ensuring that they can offer a compelling pitch to recruits.

While McGuire seems content at Texas Tech, his situation remains fluid. Athletic directors and university leadership must remain vigilant in ensuring that their head coaches are happy and fulfilled. The grass may not always be greener on the other side, but the allure of a prestigious program like Baylor, with its storied history and potential for success, could tempt any ambitious coach. The challenge for Texas Tech is to continually affirm McGuire’s position and ensure that he feels valued and supported as he builds the program.

As the current season unfolds, both Baylor and Texas Tech will continue to navigate the challenges of the Big 12 Conference. The Bears must address their struggles, with Aranda needing to right the ship quickly to preserve his job. Meanwhile, McGuire will aim to solidify his status as one of the rising stars in college football coaching. The stakes are high for both programs, and the decisions made in the coming months could shape the future of their respective football programs.

In this context, the looming question of whether Baylor will pursue McGuire if they part ways with Aranda hangs in the air. It’s a narrative filled with intrigue, reflecting the complex nature of college football coaching dynamics. For Baylor, the prospect of hiring a coach who has demonstrated success and resilience, particularly one with ties to the university, could be an attractive option. Conversely, for McGuire, remaining at Texas Tech offers the opportunity to continue building a program that has shown significant potential under his leadership.

As the season progresses, the football landscape will continue to shift, with wins and losses playing a pivotal role in shaping the futures of both coaches. For Baylor, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty, while for Texas Tech, the future appears bright under McGuire’s guidance. The coaching carousel is always spinning, and in the high-stakes world of college football, nothing is ever truly certain. Whether it’s McGuire’s ascent or Aranda’s potential departure, the coming months will undoubtedly bring plenty of drama and intrigue to the forefront of college football discussions.