“Ohio State’s Third Down Showdown: Key to Taming Oregon!”

You ask, we answer. Sometimes we ask, others answer. And then other times, we ask, we answer.

Tonight at Autzen Stadium, it’s the clash of the season as the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes face off against the No. 3 Oregon Ducks in the Pacific Northwest. Ohio State has shown great dominance in their first five games, allowing more than seven points only once. However, they’ll encounter a much tougher challenge in Eugene.

The Ducks had a shaky start against Idaho and Boise State but have since regained their momentum, looking like the formidable team many predicted before the season began. In this evenly matched contest, we wanted to gauge how Buckeye Nation is gearing up for this prime-time battle.

In this week’s fan survey, we asked Ohio State fans to share what they believe will be the key factor in the Buckeyes’ victory and predict the margin of that win. You can find the gathered responses (along with my unsolicited thoughts on them) below. If you’d like to share your own opinion, feel free to comment at the bottom of the page!

Question 1: What will be the biggest factor in Ohio State beating Oregon on Saturday?

Having successfully navigated their first major challenge of the season in last week’s game against the Iowa Hawkeyes, it’s now time for the Buckeyes’ defense, known as the Silver Bullets, to step up against Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense.

The Ducks come into tonight’s matchup boasting the 25th-ranked offense, averaging 458.6 yards per game, and the 31st in scoring with 35 points per game. They lean heavily on passing, racking up 294.2 yards through the air (19th nationally), while managing only 164.4 rushing yards, placing them 67th.

While Ohio State’s defense has performed impressively so far, they’ve struggled with allowing long third-down conversions. This hasn’t been a significant issue against teams like Iowa, Michigan State, and Marshall, but it could pose a problem against Oregon.

I believe the majority of respondents are right in their assessments, which aligns with other popular opinions, such as the defensive line needing to pressure Gabriel and the linebackers maintaining disciplined play.

While it’s unrealistic to expect the OSU defense to stop Oregon on every third down, if they can improve their performance from earlier games, tonight’s matchup could turn lopsided. Personally, I don’t have a problem with the third-down strategies, as it seems clear that Knowles aimed to prevent big plays, given the cushion from the OSU corners. Adopting a bend-but-don’t-break strategy might not always be easy to watch, but it’s a sensible approach, especially against a potentially explosive offense like Oregon’s.

Question 2: What will the margin of victory be in Saturday’s game against Oregon?

It seems that a significant majority (77%, to be precise) of Buckeye fans surveyed believe the game will be fairly close, which Vegas and NBC would likely welcome. The point spread is only 3.5 points, with Ohio State favored on the road, and the respected college football analytics model SP+ predicts a 29-26 victory for the Buckeyes. While I’d gladly take a three-point win—and even a one-point win—I’m not expecting such a tight score tonight.

As we do every week, the LGHL staff has shared our game predictions, including score, key storylines, and MVP selections. While I encourage you to check the link for all our insights, I’ll share my own prediction: I think Ohio State will win 34-13. I went into more detail during this morning’s episode of the “Land-Grant Tailgate Podcast,” which you can listen to below.