Texas Tech Red Raiders win projections, strengths and weaknesses, quarterback spotlight and more

Head Coach: Joey McGuire (third season)
2023 Record: 7-6 (Won Independence Bowl)
PFF Power Ranking: 40th
Chance to Win the Big 12: 3%
Strength of Schedule: 63rd
Projected Win Total: 6.4
FanDuel Win Total: 7.5
2024 Recruiting Rank (On3): No. 23 nationally, No. 1 in the Big 12

Texas Tech wrapped up 2023 with a familiar outcome: a winning record and a bowl victory. Running back Tahj Brooks, who was the key to the Red Raiders’ offense last year, is back for his senior year. For the team to advance offensively, redshirt junior quarterback Behren Morton needs to improve on his 64.9 passing grade from 2023.

Defensively, the Red Raiders face significant challenges after losing eight of the 14 defenders who played at least 300 snaps last season.

Biggest Strength: Tahj Brooks
Last season, Texas Tech’s offense heavily relied on Brooks, who led Power Five running backs with 292 carries. He showcased exceptional efficiency, earning a 92.1 PFF rushing grade that ranked fifth among Power Five players. As he heads into his senior year, Brooks is considered one of the top five running backs in college football and will once again be the focal point of the Red Raiders’ offense.

Biggest Weakness: Will the Offense Remain One-Dimensional?
Texas Tech struggled offensively beyond Brooks, ranking 104th in the FBS in EPA per pass. With three of their top four pass-catchers from 2023 now gone, the team faces uncertainty in the passing game. However, the addition of talented players like Arizona State tight end Jalin Conyers, Washington State wide receiver Josh Kelly, and five-star freshman Micah Hudson brings hope, though Behren Morton’s performance at quarterback remains a concern.

2023 Team Overview
Offense

• EPA per Play: -0.032
• Yards per Play: 5.3
• Successful Play Rate: 35.4%
• Explosive Run Play Rate: 13.3%
• Explosive Pass Play Rate: 13.6%
  • Rankings: 77th, T-93rd, 61st, 100th, 77th

Defense

• EPA Allowed per Play: -0.010
• Yards Allowed per Play: 5.5
• Successful Play Rate Allowed: 34.3%
• Explosive Run Rate Allowed: 16.6%
• Explosive Pass Rate Allowed: 12.8%
  • Rankings: 72nd, T-66th, 58th, 92nd, 37th

Three Notable Transfer Portal Additions:

• TE Jalin Conyers (Arizona State): 69.8 PFF grade
• OG Davion Carter (Memphis): 82.6 PFF grade
• WR Josh Kelly (Washington State): 71.5 PFF grade

Three Notable Transfer Portal Losses:

• QB Tyler Shough (Louisville): 65.2 PFF grade
• OT Monroe Mills (Louisville): 68.3 PFF grade
• OG Jacoby Jackson (Mississippi State): 62.1 PFF grade