P.J. Fleck Delves Deep: Analyzing Stats and Film to Uncover the Gophers’ Secrets!

Michigan and USC are next on the schedule, and those already calling for P.J. Fleck’s firing should know that his current buyout is $26.9 million.

P.J. Fleck analyzed the stats and reviewed the game film after the Gophers’ 31-14 defeat to Iowa on Saturday night, where Minnesota held a 14-7 lead at halftime but was overwhelmed by the Hawkeyes in the second half.

“We’ve had two poor halves of football in four games regarding performance,” the Gophers coach commented on Monday, just two days after his team lost its Big Ten opener, dropping to 2-2.

Those two disappointing halves—one in the season opener against North Carolina, where Minnesota was outscored 12-3, and Saturday’s 24-0 onslaught by Iowa—have pushed the Gophers towards a critical juncture in their season. With upcoming matchups against No. 12 Michigan this Saturday and No. 13 USC on October 5, the potential for a three-game losing streak looms large.

It doesn’t get easier from here; the Gophers will also face undefeated No. 9 Penn State, No. 19 Illinois, and Rutgers. The combined record of their remaining opponents is 21-7. UCLA, at 1-2, is the only team left with a losing record.

“Our margin for error is slim,” Fleck stated. “In my eight years here, it’s always been tight. When you make mistakes, they need to be minimal.”

Ground into submission

Saturday’s shortcomings were particularly significant, especially when it came to Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson, who carried the ball 21 times for 206 yards. He wore down the Gophers in the second half with touchdown runs of 15 and 40 yards.

“It turned into a tackling issue in the second half,” Fleck remarked. “We would either miss a tackle or hesitate instead of committing. If you do that against a back like him…”

On the offensive side, Minnesota struggled to establish their running game in the third quarter, managing just 1.1 yards per run on seven attempts, which resulted in only one first down.

Fleck added, “We didn’t run the ball effectively, and our passing wasn’t much better either. We could have called better plays, and I need to be a better head coach. Other than that, how did the play go, Mrs. Lincoln?”

Power Four struggles

Fleck understands that his team needs to improve quickly with a tough schedule ahead. The Gophers have already lost their last five Big Ten games and have lost six consecutive matches against teams from the Power Four conferences (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12). In the past two seasons, they’ve recorded a 3-9 record against Power Four teams, bringing Fleck’s overall record in these games to 36-35 during his time at Minnesota.

His win percentage in these matchups stands at 50.8%, which is still an improvement over his recent predecessors Tracy Claeys (7-8, 46.7%) and Jerry Kill (15-27, 35.7%). However, this recent trend has been a source of concern for his critics.

For those advocating for Fleck’s dismissal, it’s unlikely to happen. After UCLA reached out to Fleck regarding its vacant coaching position in February, Gophers athletic director Mark Coyle and Fleck agreed in March to a revised contract. This new agreement includes $ 5.7 million in retention bonuses for the coach if he remains through the 2029 season.

The contract also stipulates new buyout amounts for Fleck. If the university dismisses him without cause, it would have to pay him 65% of his base salary, supplemental compensation, and retention bonus for the remainder of the contract. Should he be bought out before December 31, 2024, the university would owe him $26.9million,whileabuyoutbetweenJanuary1,2025,andDecember31,2025,wouldcost$ 22.4 million.

In addition to the financial challenges, the university is likely facing an upcoming expense of $ 20 million or more per year for revenue sharing with former student-athletes as part of the House v. NCAA settlement, which is expected to be finalized soon.

Regarding the game schedule, the Big Ten announced on Monday that the Gophers’ home game against USC on October 5 will kick off at 6:30 p.m. on BTN. This will be the first matchup between the Gophers and Trojans since 2011, when USC narrowly defeated Minnesota 19-17. Overall, USC leads the series with a record of 6-1-1 against the Gophers.