With the 2026 college football season now just weeks away, early projections for the first 12-team College Football Playoff field are beginning to emerge. The Texas Tech Red Raiders have generated plenty of preseason attention, but that hype alone doesn’t guarantee a spot in the playoff.
In his preseason 12-team CFP projection for CBS Sports, John Talty has Texas Tech winning the Big 12 and earning the No. 6 seed. The projection represents significant confidence in a Red Raiders program entering the season with extremely high expectations.
First-round home test against LSU
As the No. 6 seed in Talty’s projection, Texas Tech would host No. 11 LSU in the opening round. From a fan perspective, the matchup would make for an incredible atmosphere, especially with LSU supporters traveling to Lubbock. The Tigers have yet to make a College Football Playoff appearance since the field expanded to 12 teams.
The matchup would also provide a challenging test for the Red Raiders. Talty’s projection has Lane Kiffin and the Tigers, coming off a major roster overhaul, traveling to Lubbock and pulling off an upset in the first round.
The scenario serves as a reminder that winning the Big 12 and securing a top-six seed would only be the beginning for Texas Tech. Once the playoff arrives in December, every game carries enormous stakes. The Red Raiders would need to be at their best at Galaxy Stadium to keep their championship hopes alive.
Where Texas Tech fits in the bigger picture
In Talty’s projected playoff field, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs occupy the top two seeds, while the Ohio State Buckeyes and Miami Hurricanes round out the teams receiving first-round byes.
The rest of the 12-team field features Texas, Indiana, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas A&M, LSU and Boise State. The projection includes five SEC teams and several programs with legitimate national championship aspirations.
Being slotted at No. 6 places Texas Tech firmly in the playoff discussion before the season even begins. It also highlights how much Joey McGuire has helped elevate the Red Raiders program. Of course, these projections are only a snapshot of where things stand in the preseason, and plenty can change once the games begin.
Several major non-conference matchups could have a major impact on the playoff picture before the Big 12 race gets fully underway. Games such as Texas vs. Ohio State, Ole Miss vs. LSU and Oklahoma vs. Michigan could quickly shake up the national rankings.
For now, the takeaway is straightforward: Texas Tech is being viewed as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, and if the projection becomes reality, Lubbock would have the opportunity to host a playoff game.
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